It’s finally here! The Chiefs visit the Rams (ESPN, 8:15 p.m.) in a potential Super Bowl preview.
Fans and bettors have been waiting weeks for this offensive showcase. Few teams have done as good a job as the Chiefs and Rams at abusing defenses after offseason rules changes. VSiN’s “Drive Point” stat captures that at a glance.
Here are per-game scoring averages only on drives of 60 yards or more (excluding all defensive points, special teams points, or relatively cheap offensive points from field position): Saints 24.8, Steelers 24.8, Chiefs 24.0, Buccaneers 20.0, Colts 19.9, Rams 19.3.
This stat reflects “true” offense because it rewards driving the field and making big plays. You can’t fake your way to a stellar average, particularly this deep into the season. Offenses must have varied and dynamic weaponry to grade out well over time.
Monday’s entries are third and sixth in the league. But, there are other surging Super Bowl contenders listed higher, as the Saints and Steelers are also moving up and down the field virtually at will. Get ready for a high-scoring postseason! (If you’re wondering about Tom Brady and the Patriots, they entered the week at 17.0, surprisingly posting 10 or less in four different games.)
What about defense? Both teams are prone to play shootouts. The Rams have defended better to date, allowing 17 drive points per game. The Chiefs have allowed 19.1. (If you’re curious about the NFL’s best defenses — entering the week, those were the Titans 9.2, Chargers 10.1, Bills 10.4, Ravens 11.6 and Texans 11.8).
Looking at drive-point differential suggests potential betting value on the underdog. Kansas City is +4.9 drive points per game, compared to +2.3 for the Rams. Respected metrics show they’ve played comparably difficult schedules.
Worth noting also is that the Rams defense had trouble stopping the Seahawks and Packers offenses on this field in recent action. The Chiefs are more explosive than a composite of those two teams.
- The Rams (-7) beat Green Bay, 29-27, but only tied drive points 21-21. LA allowed 6.9 yards per play to Aaron Rodgers and company.
- The Rams (-9) beat Seattle, 36-31, but lost drive points 31-20. LA allowed 6.5 yards per play, and an astonishing 273 yards on the ground.
Can either defense derail the other offense?
It looks as if the Rams will be favored by just above a field goal around kickoff (depending on game-day betting action). The Chiefs covered that price at New England several weeks ago in a 43-40 loss. Sharps will typically take more than a field goal on principle in games featuring dueling offenses that are difficult to stop.
The Over/Under is expected to stay settled in the 63-64 range pending new developments. That suggests another fireworks show for football fans who love offense.
