Possibly the largest disagreements about any NFL team in preseason punditry involve the Giants. Eli Manning and company open their season Sunday at home against the Jaguars.
You will hear pundits picking the Giants to win the NFC East on the assumption that new coach Pat Shurmur has the offensive chops to fix last year’s debacle. You will hear pundits picking them to finish last in the division because rising from 3-13 to as high as 6-10 or 7-9 still might not get them out of the cellar.
There’s similar variation in the markets. Some Vegas oddsmakers have told the media the G-men are one of their biggest liabilities because both respected and public money has taken long-shot odds on the futures board. Yet, the Over/Under for projected wins is just seven … with higher vigorish on the Over. It’s tough to win a championship with only seven or eight regular season wins.
Sunday’s price vs. Jacksonville suggests the composite wisdom of the market doesn’t see the Giants as a legitimate playoff contender. Jacksonville is -3 on the road. Home-field advantage is generally worth three points in the NFL. So, the Jaguars are seen as six points better on a neutral field.
That’s a steep differential considering the market still isn’t sold on Blake Bortles as a trustworthy quarterback. At six points on a neutral scale, you’d have to view Jacksonville as the best team in the league to rate the Giants as playoff-caliber. Much more reasonable: Jacksonville is a playoff contender not quite amongst the elites, and the Giants are also-rans.
Though, it’s worth noting the markets are giving Shurmur credit for the potential to have an immediate impact. The “market-projected” final score Sunday is Jaguars 23, Giants 20 (most shops in the range of Jaguars -3 with an Over/Under of 43). Getting to 20 on the Jags isn’t easy!
In 2017, Jacksonville allowed just 16.8 points and 286.1 yards per game and created 33 takeaways, ranking No. 2 in the NFL in all three of those important defensive categories. If the Giants can top 20 points with legitimate yardage production against that unit, you can be confident betting Big Blue in future games. It’s an immediate litmus test.
