Villanova, at a preseason price of around 30/1, cut down the nets last season in San Antonio. Despite losing four players to the NBA, the Wildcats are still one of the top choices to be the last team standing in Minneapolis in April.
The current favorite at William Hill to win it is Duke at 9/2 with the nation’s top recruiting class, followed closely by Kentucky (11/2), Kansas (15/2), North Carolina (15/2), Gonzaga (10/1) and Nevada (10/1). I’m not much on chalk when playing futures, so let’s look for some value down the college basketball board:
Virginia (20/1): My pick to win the national championship. I know what you’re thinking already: Yes, these are the Cavaliers who became the first No. 1 seed to lose in the first round of the NCAA Tournament to a No. 16 seed in UMBC. They didn’t just lose; they got blown out. However, this is the same Virginia team that went 17-1 in the ACC and swept the regular-season and conference-tournament championships, including a win at Duke and two wins over North Carolina.
Some of the teams with shorter prices are more talented than Virginia and have higher-ranked recruiting classes, but veteran guards often win in March and coach Tony Bennett has them with former McDonald’s All-American Kyle Guy and Ty Jerome. Reigning ACC Sixth Man of the Year De’Andre Hunter also returns along with power forward Mamadi Diakite, and three 7-footers who will be in the rotation.
The key to a deep Cavaliers run might be Braxton Key, a transfer from Alabama who is interchangeable at the three or the four and gives the Cavaliers the ability to go with either big or small lineups.
Finally, these guys have had to hear all year how they were the first to lose to a 16. I expect them to have major chips on their shoulders. The Cavaliers are already a nasty and physical team to play against, but now they are an angry team that will be a nightmare to face.
Oregon (25/1): The Ducks kind of get overlooked by many national college basketball types but they have been to the Elite Eight and a Final Four in two of the past three seasons. While they took a step back last year, they really had to replace a lot of losses and pieced together a hodgepodge of youth and a couple transfers. Oregon coach Dana Altman does not have to do that this year. The Ducks have a third-year starter at point guard with Peyton Pritchard and other solid veterans Paul White and Kenny Wooten. Oregon is also starting to recruit with the blue bloods, landing two five-star talents Louis King and Bol Bol, the son of former NBA player Manute. Oregon could be a year away from being one of the true favorites to win the national championship in 2020, but the Ducks have some value down the odds board.
West Virginia (40/1): “Press Virginia” was No. 2 in the nation at forcing turnovers (23.4 percent of opponent possessions resulted in turnovers) last season. Expect more of the same as coach Bob Huggins goes around 11 deep in their rotation and basically has the philosophy of whoever steals the ball goes and scores. West Virginia’s strength will lie with a frontcourt that includes junior Sagaba Konate, who was third in the nation with 3.2 blocked shots per game. The old saying goes that the road to winning the Big 12 goes through Lawrence, Kansas, but this team should be dangerous in March and might fall under the radar.
Indiana (50/1): Programs usually improve the most in a coach’s second year and that should be the case with Archie Miller’s Hoosiers. IU finished 16-15 in Miller’s first season in Bloomington, but he put his imprint on this team with his version of pack line (sagging man-to-man) defense and changed the identity of the program from the Tom Crean era of good offense that could get open shots but couldn’t guard lamp posts. Indiana’s woes were mainly based on offense last season, but that should change with the addition of reigning Indiana Mr. Basketball and likely one-and-done Romeo Langford. Indiana isn’t predicted to win the Big Ten, but the Hoosiers do likely have two of the best five players in the conference with Langford and senior forward Juwan Morgan.
Marquette (200/1): This is a leap of faith with a long shot when you consider how poor Marquette was defensively last year (312th of 353 in ppg allowed, 248th in rebound margin and 271st in offensive rebounding. However, two transfers (Ed Morrow from Nebraska and Joseph Chartouny from Fordham) should help them dramatically improve in those categories. Chartouny led the nation in steals last season and averaged nearly six rebounds per game as a guard. Those additions along with the graduation of Andrew Rowsey allow junior Markus Howard (20.4 ppg) to really be the go-to guy.
