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There’s never a better time to revisit why you shouldn’t be betting three-way matchups in golf than the WGC-Dell Match Play, which is … entirely matchups.
Here are the two main ways to bet head-to-head matchups in golf, when you’re betting that one golfer will score better than another over the 18-hole round or the entire tournament:
- Two golfers with a tie resulting in a push and your money refunded
- Two golfers, plus a tie as a long-shot option
It doesn’t seem likely that two golfers will finish with the exact same score over 72 holes.
But you should not be betting these three-way lines, because they allow sportsbooks to subtly take even more of your money.
How are they taking more money? First, let’s go over implied probability.
All odds (in sports betting and otherwise) are really just the implied probabilities of all the possible outcomes added up. A coin flip is 50 percent vs. 50 percent and adds up to 100 percent because there are only two outcomes.
Bubba Watson, left, speaks with Webb Simpson in the second round of the Dell Technologies Match Play on Thursday, March 24, 2022. APIn sports betting, implied probabilities always add up to more than 100 percent, because the sportsbook takes a cut. Two NFL point spreads at -110 add up to about 104.76 percent — so sportsbooks over the long run will keep about 4.76 percent of all money wagered.
Here’s the kicker — the more the sum of those probabilities goes over 100 percent, the more of an advantage the sportsbook has.
Take this matchup from the 2022 WGC-Dell Match Play on Thursday. All lines are from Bet365.In the two-way matchup with just the players listed, you’d get your money back if they tie. And the sportsbook has a 5.56 percent hold.
Webb Simpson: -125 (55.56 percent)
Bubba Watson: +100 (50 percent)That adds up to 105.56 percent, meaning on average the sportsbook will keep 5.56 percent of every dollar wagered.
Now let’s add up the probabilities with the tie, where you would not get your money back if it ends all square.
The hold increases to 9.5 percent.
That’s similar to betting every NFL point spread at -120, which you would never do.
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Webb Simpson: +100 (50 percent)
Bubba Watson: +115 (46.51 percent)
Tie: +650 (13.33 percent)
That adds up to 109.84 percent, meaning the sportsbook is keeping 9.84 percent of every dollar wagered on average — almost 10 cents per dollar! You don’t want to be betting into these markets because it’s so hard to overcome the sportsbook’s edge.
By making it a three-way market, the sportsbook removes the tie as a way for you to get your money back, which doesn’t sound like a huge deal, but will cost you about $4.30 more for every $100 wagered in the long run.
And I know what you’re thinking — if you can bet Webb Simpson at +100 instead of -125, shouldn’t you do that?
No, because you want the option to get your money back if it’s a tie. Ties happen more often than you think.
At the 2022 Valspar Championship, 11 of the 68 listed round-by-round matchups (per Data Golf) ended in ties.
At match-play events, it happens even more often, given the nature of the scoring system. Four of the first 38 matches in this year’s match play ended all square.
So if your sportsbook only has three-way golf head-to-head bets, find a new one. DraftKings and BetMGM both offer two-way golf matchups that will be much better for bettors.



