If you want to see the world’s best basketball team in person, you’d better act fast.
The Warriors make their only New York trip of the 2018-19 season this weekend. Stephen Curry and the multi-time NBA champions visit the Knicks on Friday night at the Garden (7:30 p.m.), then play the Nets on Sunday at Barclays Center (5 p.m.).
Will there be any betting value in those games? Generally speaking, in the “point spread” sports of basketball and football, it’s smart to go against perceived superpowers because they’re always priced to perform at peak levels.
The general public loves betting on great teams. Asking the best to cash tickets feels safer than hoping some mediocrity comes through. Too many “squares” try to live vicariously through their bets. What better way to feel like a champion than to be a “teammate” of champions at the betting window whenever they take the court?
Oddsmakers have known all about this tendency since betting first began. They’re not going to give that mindset any breaks. Elites aren’t just priced as champions, but there’s often a market premium of a half-point to a point (or more) for the honor of betting those sides.
- Golden State was known to be head and shoulders above the rest of the NBA when last season began. The Warriors would ultimately go on to win the title. Yet, they were just 34-47-1 against the number in the 2017-18 regular season. That’s just 42 percent, when it takes 52.4 percent for a bettor to show a profit against an 11/10 vigorish (the extra 10 percent surcharge on lost bets). Though the new season is still young, the Warriors are already minus money for bettors as they head to the Big Apple.
- Cleveland with LeBron James was another NBA team the public loved to bet last season because of the Cavs’ championship pedigree in the Eastern Conference. The Cavaliers would ultimately lose to the Warriors in the NBA Finals. That after compiling a 32-49-1 ATS record in the regular season, 40 percent.
- In the NFL, the Eagles have been overpriced this season after their surprising run to the Super Bowl. They’re just 2-5 against the spread after last week’s blown game against the Panthers.
Maybe Golden State will play great this weekend. But, it’s a good general rule for sports bettors to avoid laying points with elites.
Who’s best to bet on in the baskets? Think young and hungry teams that aren’t yet getting enough market respect. According to the standings page at covers.com, last season’s top NBA point spread performers were Boston (50-30-2), Philadelphia (48-33-2), Portland (42-35-5), Indiana (47-35), and New Orleans (45-36-1). Perhaps the market catches up to those five this season. Your job: figure out who’s got next!
