This week’s ESPN Sunday night feature will give us a chance to check in on the Nationals. Washington entered the season as a perceived lock to win the NL East, on the short list of contenders to win the league pennant. So far, 2018 has been a relative disappointment heading into the series finale against the surprising Phillies.
A week ago at this time, we studied some key indicator stats for the Cubs, a team perceived in lock step with the Nats before the season. Let’s check in on those categories for Washington. The Nationals have:
- A run differential well above break-even, consistent with being “playoff caliber.” But, they are well back of the Braves in their division, and the Cubs in the NL overall.
- The third-best road ERA in the NL, an ideal stat for evaluating pitching staffs in a neutralized environment. This is definitely a playoff-caliber pitching staff.
- An offense that is just league average in runs per game and OPS on the road. The Nationals are well behind the Braves in a road offense composite … as well as the Cubs and Dodgers, likely playoff entries from other divisions according to current futures prices. That lack of pop is suggesting Washington shouldn’t currently be thought of as championship material. The offense had better pick up or the Nationals will be stuck in a wild-card survival showdown just to get into the main NL bracket.Bettors have been able to take advantage of that “strong pitching/mediocre offense” combo with Under bets. Entering the weekend, Washington was near 60 percent Unders for the season. It takes 52.5 percent to break even against standard 11/10 vigorish.Total packageTop ‘Over’ TeamsTeam % Indians 53.5 Giants 53.4 Blue Jays 52.9 Mariners 52.7 Athletics 52.2 Marlins 52.0 Pirates 51.5 D’backs 51.4 Rockies 50.7Top ‘Under’ TeamsTeam % Cubs 60.0 Royals 60.0 Brewers 59.7 Nationals 59.2 Orioles 58.3 Tigers 57.5 White Sox 57.4 Cardinals 57.4 Mets 55.7Results entering Friday’s games. Source: teamrankings.com
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