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For the first time since they started the season 7-6, the New York Yankees are fighting it. After being swept by the Cardinals, the Yankees have lost five in a row and are now 12-18 in their last 30 games.

While alarm bells are starting to pop off around the Bronx, savvy bettors will know that this dip in form from the Yankees could present an opportunity.

For most of the year, the Bombers were unbettable because of the price you had to pay. But that has changed thanks to this month-long swoon. New York is a -118 favorite on the road against the Mariners, who just took two of three from the Yankees last week. 

Odds provided by Caesars Sportsbook

Spread NYY (-105) vs. SEA (-115):

Moneyline: NYY -1.5 (+143) vs. SEA +1.5 (170)

Total: Over 8 (-105) | Under 8 (-115)

Jameson Taillon will get the start for the Yankees and is coming off a rough outing against these same Mariners in his last start. Taillon allowed six runs (five earned) on two hits — both home runs — and a season-high four walks in 4.2 innings against Seattle six days ago. 

That start was another bump in what has been an inconsistent summer for Taillon after such a strong start to the season. The former No. 2 overall pick has pitched to a 5.73 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and a .280 batting average against over his last 11 starts. 

The silver lining for Taillon is that, while he has certainly struggled, he also has not benefited from much in the way of good luck. Over his last 11 outings, Taillon’s xFIP — which takes some of the noise out a pitcher’s ERA — sits at 3.91, which isn’t great but does indicate that he has pitched better than his surface-level numbers indicate. 

In less than a week, Taillon will take on Logan Gilbert for the second time. And like Taillon, Gilbert’s last start was rough. The 25-year-old right-hander allowed six runs on seven hits, three of which were dingers, and four walks against the Yankees on Aug. 2. 

More of those kinds of starts could be coming for Gilbert, whose peripheral numbers and batted ball data suggest he’s been closer to average than good. On the season, Gilbert owns a 3.09 ERA and 1.18 WHIP, but his xFIP sits at 3.80, and his BABIP is only .283 even though he gives up a ton of hard contact.

The market sentiment has soured on the Yankees — and for good reason — but there are some signs that this recent wobble is just as much due to a downturn in fortune than poor form. According to MLB’s expected Win/Loss metric, the Yankees should have about five more wins on their ledger than they actually have, which tells you that this is still an elite team that just hasn’t got the same bounces they did earlier in the season. 

Sounds like a recipe to start buying low.

The Bet: New York Yankees -105 (Caesars)