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It goes without saying, but Gerrit Cole needs to get back on track if the New York Yankees plan on going on a run this October. After posting a 3.02 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and allowing a .195 batting average against in his first 19 outings of the season, Cole has pitched to a 7.00 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and has allowed a .307 batting average against in his last three outings (18 innings). 

But what’s most interesting about Cole’s current run of form is that his underlying metrics suggest he’s actually been pitching just as well, if not better, over his last three appearances than he was all season. Cole’s strikeout numbers, walk rate, fastball velocity and hard hit rate are basically inline with what we’ve seen from him this season and his 2.97 xFIP (which takes some of the noise out of a pitcher’s ERA), is absurdly low compared to his 7.00 ERA over the last 18 innings. The longball continues to be an issue for the former No. 1 overall pick, but that’s nothing new. 

Odds provided by Caesars Sportsbook

Spread: NYY -1.5 (+135) vs. SEA +1.5 (-160)

Moneyline: NYY (-130) vs. SEA (+105)

Total: Over 7 (-105) | Under 7 (-115)

Perhaps it’s too convenient to say that Cole has just been unlucky over the last two weeks, but the numbers — like his .396 BABIP — indeed suggest that Lady Luck is getting involved.

After making his Seattle Mariners debut against the Yankees on Aug. 3, Luis Castillo will make his second start for the M’s against the Yanks on Tuesday night. The former Cincinnati Red came to Seattle in great form — he pitched to a 1.00 ERA and 2.88 xFIP over his last four outings with the Reds — but was just OK in his first American League start, as he allowed three runs on five hits and three walks in 6.2 innings against the Bombers.

Even with his pedestrian debut, there’s little to be alarmed about with Castillo, who has posted a 2.95 ERA and 3.35 xFIP on the season and ranks in the 66th percentile in expected batting average, 78th percentile in expected slugging percentage, and 81st percentile in barrel rate.

With Cole due for some positive regression and Castillo in great form, this game does have the ingredients for a F5 Under, but there is one thing that could give you pause. This will be the third time Castillo has faced this Yankees lineup in the last three weeks, which is a bit treacherous for any starting pitcher. 

So rather than backing the F5 Under, buy low on Cole and back him to get the better of Castillo through the first half of the game on Tuesday night.

The Bet: Yankees -0.5 runs (First 5 Innings) +115 via BetMGM Sportsbook