Two of the worst NFL teams straight up and against the point spread square off Thursday night when the Raiders (1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS) visit the 49ers (1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS).
So much for all those commercials about how great the Thursday night TV matchups would be this season! This week … a regional non-rivalry (currently) featuring teams nobody wants to bet on.
That is bad luck for entertainment value, but gives us a chance to marvel at how few teams have had disastrous point-spread performances so far in 2018. The 49ers are worst in the league at a 25 percent cover rate. Joining the Raiders at 29 percent are the Falcons. That’s a total of three teams (out of 32) at 2-5 or worse. Six teams are two games below .500, exactly 3-5 ATS right now. But that hunk could be strongly influenced by randomness rather than registering as pure “market misses.”
On the other end of the spectrum, only four teams are at 5-2 ATS or better. You’d have to say the market has done a fairly good job of creating parity with its point spreads.
Let’s do a quick study of the ATS extremes, starting with Thursday’s TV teams:
- 49ers (2-6): It looks as if the Niners were overrated out of the gate when quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo was healthy. They went 0-3 ATS versus the Vikings, Lions and Chiefs. Replacement C. J. Beathard did cover as a ’dog at the Chargers and Packers, but lost outright twice as a favorite to helpless Cardinals.
- Raiders (2-5): Oakland fell off the cliff after stealing an overtime cover versus the Browns (meaning it is 1-6 ATS at the end of regulation). Raiders lost at the Chargers 26-10 as five-point ’dogs, to the Seahawks (in London) 27-3 as three-point ’dogs, and at home to the Colts 42-28 as 3¹/₂-point ’dogs. That tailspin trio missed the spread by 11, 21, and 10¹/₂ points.
- Falcons (2-5): Atlanta was seen as a playoff contender with explosive potential when the campaign began. Defense has been a serious problem.
- Chiefs (7-1): The biggest success story to date. K.C. was a perfect 7-0 before not covering versus Denver last Sunday. It took the market a long time to accept the Chiefs were really this good.
- Redskins (5-2): Kind of a quinella with Andy Reid and Alex Smith. Smith left the Chiefs to play for the Redskins. The market underestimated both in terms of their ability to thrive out of the gate in 2018.
- Lions (5-2): You may recall the red-herring season opener when the Jets crushed the Lions, 48-17. Detroit covered five straight afterward before falling to Seattle.
- Saints (5-2): More early red herrings, as the Saints were stunned by the Bucs, 48-40, in Week 1. That was followed by a survival win over the Browns (a spread loss to Tyrod Taylor!). A big and easy 5-0 ATS record since.
It’s important to remember bettors are typically better served by picking spots here and there rather than hoping to ride a hot ATS outlier or fade a cold one.
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