LAS VEGAS — In August, futures stock in the Chiefs was available at bargain prices, yet there were few buyers. There were concerns about Patrick Mahomes, who was throwing interceptions at an alarming clip in training-camp practices.
What happened in camp, stayed in camp. Mahomes, the favorite to win NFL MVP, is now favored against Tom Brady in a quarterback battle for the ages in the AFC Championship on Sunday.
“I have run out of superlatives for Mahomes,” said John Murray, director of Westgate SuperBook. “He’s unbelievable.”
When the season kicked off in early September, the Westgate offered the Chiefs at 30/1 odds to win the Super Bowl and 15/1 odds to win the AFC. The Patriots were 6/1 Super Bowl favorites.
Of the four teams still standing, the Chiefs represent the closest thing to a preseason long shot. In the NFC, the Rams (10/1) and Saints (14/1) went off at much lower Super Bowl odds than Kansas City, which had a young mystery man at quarterback and a weak defense.
“We are in good spots on all four teams,” Murray said of the Westgate futures book. “We do especially well on Kansas City, so we would like to see the Chiefs win it all. That’s our best outcome.”
First, the 23-year-old Mahomes must outduel Brady, 41, and overcome Bill Belichick’s defense. New England’s dynasty is not dead yet. The Patriots, in their eighth straight AFC title game, are three-point ’dogs at Kansas City. Bruce Marshall, editor of The Gold Sheet, is siding with the Chiefs primarily due to home-field advantage and the magic of Mahomes.
The conference championship game results tilted to the home teams the past five years, with the home sides posting a 10-0 straight-up record (8-2 against the spread). The Patriots went 3-0 at home and 0-2 on the road during that span, losing twice at Denver.
This is a rematch of a regular-season thriller. New England was a four-point home favorite in a 43-40 victory over the Chiefs on Oct. 14. Mahomes passed for 352 yards and four touchdowns with two interceptions. Brady passed for 340 yards and one touchdown.
Mahomes finished the season by passing for 5,097 yards and 50 touchdowns before winning his first playoff start last weekend against the Colts. The interceptions he threw in training camp were forgotten a long time ago.
“Mahomes makes plays that don’t seem to be existing,” Marshall said. “He is very creative.”
Belichick’s defensive schemes are creative, too, and the Patriots proved their many doubters wrong in a victory over the Chargers that was far more dominant than the 41-28 score. Brady completed 34-of-44 passes for 343 yards, and rookie Sony Michel rushed 24 times for 129 yards and three TDs.
Still, Brady and the Patriots have not fared well on the road this season with a 3-5 record, scoring only 10 points in each of their losses at Detroit, Tennessee and Pittsburgh. Belichick’s defense was shredded by Mahomes in October, when speed demon Tyreek Hill totaled seven receptions for 142 yards and three scores.
“It’s going to be very tough for the New England defense to bottle up Mahomes and the Kansas City playmakers,” Murray said. “Do I think it’s possible Belichick is going to outfox Andy Reid? Of course I do.
“But Reid has never had a quarterback like Patrick Mahomes. The Patriots are not a good road team. I think Kansas City is going to win this game.”
With the NFL’s top four scoring offenses featured in the conference championship games, the totals are justifiably high. William Hill sports books opened the Patriots-Chiefs total at 57½ and the Rams-Saints total at 57.
New Orleans closed as a two-point home underdog in its 45-35 victory over the Rams on Nov. 4. The Saints are 3½-point favorites in the rematch.
In another quarterback battle for the ages, Drew Brees, who turned 40 on Tuesday, faces 24 -year-old Jared Goff. Brees is seven years older than Rams coach Sean McVay. None of that matters to handicappers, unless Brees is showing wear and tear with age.
Brees passed for 301 yards and two touchdowns in a 20-14 victory over Philadelphia, which picked off Brees early en route to a 14-0 lead. The Saints, the only favorite which failed to cover in the divisional round, did not score more than 31 points in any of their past seven games.
“I don’t think Brees’ arm is right. You are seeing a lot of short throws,” Murray said. “The Saints were very lucky to escape that game against the Eagles.”
The quarterbacks will be the story lines this weekend. While Brees and Brady are testing the limits of time, Mahomes looks like the future.
