Consensus agreement has been growing that “something is wrong” with the Los Angeles Rams this season. But, heading into their Thursday night game on the road at the Seattle Seahawks (8:20 p.m., FOX, NFL Network), it’s hard to pin down exactly what that is.
Supposedly the New England Patriots showed the world how to stop Jared Goff and the high-octane Rams offense in last February’s Super Bowl. Yet, the Rams …
- Scored 30 points and converted 53 percent of third-down tries in their season-opening win at Carolina. That’s the same Panthers defense that just bullied Deshaun Watson and Houston last week.
- Scored 27 points on 6.2 yards-per-play against the same New Orleans defense that just shut down the Dallas Cowboys. You have to call that a quality win for L.A., as the Saints beat playoff contenders Seattle and Dallas afterward.
- Weren’t particularly impressive in a 20-13 Monday night grinder at Cleveland. But, the Browns then battered the Baltimore Ravens 40-25 six days later. Maybe that result is more impressive in hindsight than it was at the time.
- Scored 40 points (34 on offense) on 518 total yards and 6.4 yards-per-play last Sunday versus Tampa Bay. Though, the result was a shocking 55-40 loss, it’s tough to blame Goff and the offense for that one.
If you cherry-pick the worst we’ve seen from the Rams offense in its most quiet halves … and the horrible defensive result last week … sure, something might be wrong. But, Los Angeles is still 3-1 in the standings against four opponents who are 8-4 when not playing the Rams!
And, LA has covered 75 percent of its point spreads so far. That means the market has underrated the Rams rather than overrating them.
Has that happened again? Los Angeles will likely close as an underdog Thursday for the first time since the Super Bowl. It hasn’t occurred in the regular season since the end of 2017.
Host Seattle still enjoys media hype regarding what had historically been a strong home field. But an 0-2 start against the spread in 2019 (beating Cincinnati only 21-20, laying nine points, and losing outright to New Orleans 33-27 laying five) has dropped the Seahawks to 7-10-1 ATS at Century Link Field since the start of the 2017 season. Don’t assume it’s safe to pencil in more than the standard three points at this site.
If the game-day point spread settles in the +1¹/₂ to +2¹/₂ range, sharps will be looking to bet the Rams in six-point teasers that let you lift the line past both key numbers of three and seven. Unfortunately, there aren’t many possible partners for that strategy this weekend with so many NFL spreads currently sitting in the window between three and seven.
Best of luck if you bet the game. Just be aware that the market already has reacted to the “something is wrong with the Rams” theme. It might have overreacted.
