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The Ashes, the most wonderfully absurd and endlessly gripping rivalry in all of sports, returns this week.

Over the next 50 days, England and Australia will lob insults, dispute etiquette, bring up old scores (like that whole colonialism thing), and posture like cultural superpowers. Somewhere amid the indignation and national chest-puffing, they’ll even play a little cricket. Actually, a lot of cricket.

The Ashes is test cricket at its finest. Each match (or test) can last up to five days, and they’re scheduled to play five of them across sun-soaked Australia between Nov. 20 and Jan. 8. The winner of the best-of-5 series takes home the most whimsical trophy in all sports — an urn about four inches tall, roughly the size of a short-tailed shrew.

To the American palate, this all seems insane. And it is. But rest assured, a good portion of the planet’s population will be talking about nothing but cricket throughout the holiday season. We’re missing out.

As for the match, the Aussies are odds-on favorites to retain the Ashes, and for good reason. Australia has held the urn since 2017, and they haven’t lost a series to England on its home deck since 2010-11. England’s last three trips Down Under have been especially ugly, losing 5-0, 4-0, and 4-0, respectively.

But there is reason for optimism in the English camp ahead of this year’s trip to The Lucky Country. For the first time in ages, the Australian roster seems in flux. One generation is aging out, while the next has yet to really assert itself. There is also an injury crisis in the Aussie camp.

Patrick Cummins, Australia’s captain and most clutch bowler, has been ruled out for the first test. One of his fast-bowling sidekicks, Josh Hazlewood, is also going to miss the curtain-raiser.

It’s a massive blow. Australia’s biggest advantage was its relentless bowling attack with Cummins, Hazlewood, Mitchell Starc, and spin-bowling legend Nathan Lyon, but that edge is now muted.

There’s also genuine concern about the top of the batting order. With David Warner retired, the Australians lack a trustworthy batterymate for Usman Khawaja. That’ll put pressure on the middle of the order, with New York City resident Steve “Smudger” Smith serving as the team’s sherpa in Cummins’ absence.

There may not be a better time to take on Australia than right now, but there’s a reason why the bookies still have the Baggy Greens as the favorite.

England has plenty of questions to answer, too.

The team’s game-wrecker, Ben Stokes, is perpetually on the injury report, and the bowling attack lacks experience playing in these conditions.

England’s most consistent batter, Joe Root, has struggled to find his ceiling in Australia. It’s one of the only blemishes on the 34-year-old’s resume.

There’s also the issue of England’s identity. Books have been written, and more will come, about “BazBall.” The aggressive style of cricket the English have adopted under Brendon McCullum, just might not jive in these conditions against the explosive Australian bowling attack, which still features a hydra of Starc, Lyon, and Scott Boland. Trying to beat an unstoppable force with another unstoppable force seems like a bad idea.

It seems like everybody is hitting the panic button in Australia because of the injuries and the uncertainty at the top of the order, but it’s still advantage Aussies. It’s been a long time since the Three Lions have been competitive on the sunburnt decks Down Under, and there isn’t really one part of the England squad that should instill fear into Australians.

I still believe Australia will cruise to victory, and the even-money price on the Aussies winning the series by at least two matches seems appealing.

And if you’ve been convinced to join the church of cricket and want something a little more exciting to root for while you immerse yourself, you can grab a hold of Alex Carey to score the most runs in the series at 33/1. A punt on Boland, a hero to his people, to be named the Player of the Series at 16/1 is a fun one, too.

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.