Can St. John’s find consistency before the postseason? Can any team possibly hope to string together tournament victories if it can’t find consistency?
The Red Storm enter Sunday’s showdown with No. 13 Villanova (FS1, 5 p.m.) possessing a very volatile résumé. Among the highlights are a series sweep of No. 10 Marquette (which is 20-2 vs. everyone else) and a point-spread cover in a 76-71 loss at Villanova, which was closer than the final score makes it sound.
St. John’s actually owns the scoreboard vs. those ranked Big East powers by a stunning 230-214 margin, and two of the three games were on the road! The Red Storm beat market expectations by a combined 26 points.
Marquette and Villanova are currently positioned for seeds in the No. 3 to No. 5 range in respected bracketology estimates. St. John’s is down on the bubble because of results such as the following:
- St. John’s (-6¹/₂) lost to DePaul, 79-71
- St. John’s (-7) lost to Georgetown, 89-78
- St. John’s (-5¹/₂) lost to Providence, 70-56
Those three outright home losses missed the market by 14¹/₂, 18 and 19¹/₂ points. Throw in a flunked non-conference litmus test at No. 2 Duke, a 91-61 loss as a 17-point underdog, and you have a team that’s hard for the selection committee or bettors to fall in love with. You can’t keep the Red Storm out of the Dance (yet) … but you can’t expect them to stay on the floor very long, either.
The good news Sunday is that St. John’s matches up well with the Wildcats. In that tight road loss earlier this season, the Red Storm shot 50 percent on 2-pointers while turning the ball over just eight times. A 22-8 edge in free throws for Villanova isn’t likely to repeat at Madison Square Garden.
The bad news is St. John’s enters off a midweek win over Butler. In Big East play, the Red Storm are 0-3-1 against the spread immediately following a straight-up victory (and the push was as a favorite in overtime vs. Georgetown, which means it wasn’t a cover in regulation).
Consistent with our theme of inconsistency, St. John’s is 5-2 ATS after a straight-up loss. It’s best to bet them in bounce-back spots. Maybe the right strategy Sunday is to let the high-profile, peak-intensity game play itself out. Then, Wednesday, either back St. John’s at Providence (with revenge) off a loss to Villanova, or fade the Red Storm if they’re celebrating a win over the Wildcats.
For now, bettors should see St. John’s as a group that can play spoiler in a 40-minute sprint rather than one that can string together wins deep into March. Don’t consider them at futures prices to win the Big East Tournament or to make a surprising run in the NCAAs, no matter how appealing the odds might seem. How can you win six in a row in the Dance if you can’t win three in a row during regular-season play in your own conference?
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