I put a ton of emphasis on the quality of an NFL team’s starting quarterback. In my opinion, if overall talent is 1A in terms of what is most important on the field, head coaches and starting quarterbacks are 1B. Simply put, teams that are stable at QB always seem to be in the postseason hunt. Those that have an annual carousel of signal-callers are usually home for the playoffs, changing coaches and looking forward to replacing their quarterback in the upcoming draft.
As bettors, we generally believe team success translates into point-spread success, so teams with better quarterbacks make for better bets.
I took my annual snapshot of each team’s starting quarterback or rotating QBs, examining their betting performance records in many scenarios. Of the 38 quarterbacks analyzed, 27 boast an ATS record of 50 percent or better. You might question how so many QBs can boast .500 records or better, but consider that the guys who have lost more games against the spread probably are no longer starters.
Carolina’s Teddy Bridgewater (33-11 ATS, 75 percent) tops the list of ATS success among players who have started at least 10 games, with Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow matching that ATS win percentage in his first eight starts. The Jets’ Sam Darnold (35 percent) and San Francisco’s Nick Mullens (36 percent) bring up the rear.
Here are some of the quarterbacks with good betting trends:
Teddy Bridgewater’s amazing 23-4 ATS mark as an underdog and his 10-1 ATS record vs. AFC foes.
Patrick Mahomes’ 7-0 ATS mark as a road, scoring 36.4 ppg.
Lamar Jackson’s hard-to-believe 13-2 SU and 11-2-2 ATS records on the road.
Ryan Tannehill’s unique ability to lead his team in the home underdog role, going 13-7 SU and 13-4-3 ATS.
Russell Wilson’s penchant for lifting his team when down, going 34-8 SU and 26-11-5 ATS when off a loss, as the Seahawks are, heading into Sunday’s game at the Rams.
Ben Roethlisberger’s dominance of Cincinnati, 25-7 SU and 23-9 ATS, as the Steelers and Bengals prepare to meet this weekend.
Tom Brady’s 6-0 SU and ATS career record vs. Atlanta, with the teams set to meet in Weeks 15 and 17, or his 10-1 ATS record as a home ’dog, with potential for that coming Nov. 29 vs. Kansas City.
At the same time, these are some of the worst performance marks you’ll want to keep an eye on:
Daniel Jones’ 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS record as a home underdog, with his team scoring just 15.1 ppg, as the Giants figure to be in that spot a few more times in 2020.
Kirk Cousins’ strange struggles in non-Sunday games, going 4-15 SU and 4-14-1 ATS, with a Monday nighter coming this week and a Friday game on Christmas.
Matthew Stafford’s ugly record in the large underdog role, 2-14 SU and 4-11-1 ATS (17.1 ppg) when his team is catching more than seven points, and in December (13-23 ATS).
Lamar Jackson’s inability to get it done for bettors as a home favorite at 11-5 SU but 5-11 ATS.
Carson Wentz being unable to lift his team out of losing skids, 10-19 ATS with his team off a defeat.
Derek Carr’s failure to build on success, going 16-26 ATS when his team is coming off a win.
Cam Newton’s continued ability to disappoint backers when his team is road chalk, 16-13 SU but 10-17-2 ATS after Monday’s narrow win at the Jets.
