I’ve sworn off the Giants (1-5 straight up and 2-4 against the spread) for the foreseeable future, plus I still think the Falcons (despite being nearly as bad at 2-4 SU and ATS) are a decent team and should roll to victory.

I’m basing this mostly on how I liked their performances against two common opponents — the Falcons beat the Panthers while the Giants lost to them (though the Panthers needed the a 63-yard field goal to beat them in Carolina) — and respecting the Falcons’ loss to the Saints more than the Giants’ loss to the Saints.

What all those games had in common was that they were high-scoring, so I’m going with the Over here as well. The Falcons’ No. 8 offense should exceed 30 points while even a struggling Eli Manning should rack up the yards and points against Atlanta’s No. 30 defense (allowing 30 ppg).

The plays: Falcons, -4, and Over 53 ¹/₂.