The Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts find themselves in familiar positions: battling for first place in the AFC South. Unfortunately for the Colts, they haven’t been on the winning end of these matchups lately.

Tennessee has owned the Colts over the past couple of seasons, winning all four matchups both straight up and against the spread. The big issue for Indianapolis has been stopping the Titans’ offense. In those four wins, Tennessee is averaging 32 points per game.

I mentioned the Colts had trouble stopping Tennessee’s offense. In other words, Derrick Henry, who topped 100 yards in three of those wins and has averaged 118 yards in the past four meetings against his division rival.

The two teams met at Indianapolis in Week 2, with the Titans winning, 24-17, as 4.5-point underdogs, though the Colts outgained Tennessee by 122 yards. The difference was the Titans played mistake-free football, while Indianapolis committed three costly turnovers.

Though the Titans caught a couple of breaks the last time out, I still like them here. Tennessee started the season off slowly, but has now won three straight and is coming off a bye. Titans head coach Mike Vrabel is money in this spot, sporting a perfect 4-0 record coming off bye weeks.

Tennessee has dominated the series of late, and I expect that to continue Sunday. I’ll back them as short home favorites.

The play: Titans -2.5.