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The NFL probably doesn’t have to worry about college football stealing any of its thunder on Thursday night.

The lone game in the college ranks is one only a bettor could love, as Tulsa travels to East Carolina as a 17.5-point underdog.

The Pirates are 3-3 on the season, but 4-1-1 Against the Spread (ATS). They are coming off a hard-fought loss to Tulane in Week 7. ECU was ahead, 16-12, going into the fourth quarter, but a last-gasp touchdown from the Green Wave was the difference in a 26-19 final.

The bookies don’t think that ECU will have any issues getting back on track against the Golden Hurricane.

East Carolina may be .500 overall, but if you go deeper, it’s plain to see that this is a formidable team in the Group of 5. Their three losses came against NC State, BYU, and Tulane, and the only non-cover came against the Cougars in Provo.

Other than that, ECU has dominated the teams it was supposed to beat (Campbell, Coastal Carolina, and Army) and hung tough against the Wolfpack and Green Wave.

What makes the Pirates a tough nut to crack is that they are pretty balanced. Neither the offense nor the defense is going to scare the daylights out of you, but they are both competent units, especially relative to their peers in the Group of 5.

The same can’t be said of Tulsa.

The Golden Hurricane are in a transition year under new head coach Tre Lamb, so some bumps and bruises are to be expected, but it’s clear that the 36-year-old has his work cut out for him this season, especially when it comes to the offense.

Tulsa ranks 123rd in points per game, 117th in yards per play, and 126th in red zone scoring percentage. According to SP+, Bill Connelly’s catch-all metric, Tulsa boasts the 114th-best offense in FBS.

The defense grades out better for Tulsa, but you’re asking a lot out of that group to keep East Carolina at bay long enough so that the offense can do any damage.

There is a good chance that ECU holds Tulsa to single-digits, which opens up a path to a cover for the favorite on Thursday.

The Play: East Carolina -17.5 (-110, FanDuel)

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.