Maurice Greene versus Aleksei Oleinik is a heavyweight fight on the main card of Saturday night’s UFC 246 in Las Vegas, and it’s the “Don’t judge a book by its cover” bout of the night.

Greene, 33, is a 6-foot-7, kickboxing-based fighter with a professional record of 8-3, but he’s raw as three-week-old sushi. His fight game revolves around trying to knock out his opponent, and he’s a singularly versed stand-up fighter who tires quickly.

Oleinik is a 42-year-old Russian grappler who is shorter by five inches, but is a mixed martial artist with 71 professional fights. If he has one flaw, it’s that he’s a bit chinny. The question is: Will Oleinik be able to get inside Greene’s reach and raw power to clinch onto the monster and drag him down for a roll in the mud? Oleinik’s experience, guile and grappling are advantages provided he is able to clinch, grope and maul Greene. Oleinik must not fight Greene at distance, or he will play right into the slugger’s strength.

Oleinik opened -180, which was a bit high in my estimation. But he has been bet to a ’dog position, which I believe is based on his past two fights. Those were knockout losses to Walt Harris and Alistair Overeem, in which there is absolutely no shame as both are vastly superior to the best fighter Greene has faced.

I’ll side with Oleinik, who is a savvy, cagey, skilled technician with a superior body of work and is desperate for a victory against an up-and-coming talent in Greene who is not quite ready for this kind of opponent.

The play: Oleinik, +115