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We’re now into Week 2 of the 2022 US Open and according to the odds, the men’s side of the draw now looks like a three-horse race between Nick Kyrgios, Carlos Alcaraz, and Rafael Nadal. 

Kyrgios is the new betting favorite to win the tournament at +200, just ahead of Nadal (+260) and Alcaraz (+360), but those numbers should become even tighter on Monday night if the two Spaniards join the Aussie in the quarterfinals. 

While Nadal takes on American Frances Tiafoe on Monday afternoon, Alcaraz is set to lock horns with 2014 US Open champion Marin Cilic. The 20-year-old wunderkind is a -550 favorite over the Croatian, who comes into the Round of 16 having dropped just one set (in a tie-breaker to Dan Evans) in the tournament so far. 

Cilic is something of an anomaly to handicap, as he does seem to find a new level when he plays in the biggest tournaments. The 33-year-old has made 14 quarterfinals, six semi-finals and three finals in his Grand Slam career, with his lone win coming at this event eight years ago. A shot-maker with a great serve, Cilic can be unplayable if everything is working right, but that’s not something you can count on at this stage of his career — especially against a physical phenom like Alcaraz.

Already one of the best players in the world at 20 years of age, Alcaraz’s ability to defend and extend rallies should prove vital against Cilic, who often relies on his serve to get himself out of jams. If Alcaraz is on, Cilic’s powerful serve won’t be a get-out-of-jail card like it is against other players. 

You don’t have to go that far back to see how a matchup between these two very different tennis players can look like. Alcaraz made relatively light work of Cilic in the Round of 16 at the Cincinnati Masters, winning 7-6, 6-1 in a match that Alcaraz grew into as it went on. 

A similar pattern could play out on Monday night as Alcaraz’s ability to defend against the serve and keep rallies going should tire out the Croatian as we get into the deep part of the match. That should allow Alcaraz to score a dominant set or two to get the separation needed to cover a 6.5-game spread.

The Bet: Carlos Alcaraz -6.5 games (+105, BetMGM)