Saturday night’s light NFL exhibition slate features a matchup with intriguing storylines. The defending NFC East champion Dallas Cowboys visit the San Francisco 49ers (NFL Network, 9 p.m.), who are long overdue for a resurgence.
Dallas just spent the offseason negotiating big-money contracts after reaching the playoffs. The Niners were initially last year’s “it” team (like Cleveland this season) before quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a season-ending injury in their third game. San Francisco slid through a 4-12 slog on the generic arms of C.J. Beathard and Nick Mullens.
Both teams obviously will be very careful protecting their prize assets through the preseason. When games start for real, will either of these teams be able to join the championship discussion? Could either offer value for bettors?
Dallas: The Cowboys have been a money-maker each of the past three regular seasons, posting a 27-20-1 mark against the spread (which is the same as 27-22 in real-money terms because of the 10 percent vigorish on lost bets). Those are Dak Prescott’s three seasons at quarterback. Betting markets have underestimated his skill-set, though there is understandable skepticism about him breaking through his current ceiling. Is he destined to be a B-plus quarterback throughout his career?
A few red flags appeared in 2018. Prescott’s sack count rose to 56 from 25 and 32 in his first two seasons. He also lost a career-high eight fumbles. ESPN’s respected QBR measurement, which evaluates signal callers across a variety of skills, has shown a steady drop for Prescott since his rookie season. In order: 77.6, 69.9, and 55.2.
The market sees Dallas as wild-card caliber. William Hill’s regular-season win total of nine is just below NFC East rival Philadelphia at 9¹/₂. Hill has the Eagles at -120 to win the division, the Cowboys at +150. To win the NFC, the Eagles are 6/1, the Cowboys 15/2. Dallas is a 7¹/₂-point home favorite over the New York Giants in the regular-season opener.
San Francisco: Last year’s lineup limped to a 5-11 ATS mark, with the market not fully anticipating the post-injury letdown. Garoppolo is still an unknown quantity as a franchise quarterback. He has some red flags of his own. In just three 2018 starts, Garoppolo was intercepted three times, fumbled twice, and was sacked 13 times.
The enthusiasm hasn’t waned. William Hill is showing 8¹/₂ wins for the Niners, though the Under is a -145 favorite (risk $145 to win $100, or anything in that ratio). San Francisco is a respectable 16/5 to win the NFC West (second to the Los Angeles Rams at -175), and 15/1 to win the NFC. The Niners are currently pick ’em in their season opener on the road at Tampa Bay.
For now, Garoppolo’s red flags suggest that the market remains too high on a 27-year-old with fewer than 400 career passes. He’s being priced as a difference-maker. If he impresses in the preseason dress rehearsal and at Tampa Bay, then you can start thinking of him as a smart bet.
