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What a day we had in the opening round at Austin Country Club for the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play!

Louis Oosthuizen made six birdies….and lost. Jordan Spieth claimed victory down after nine holes and his pal Justin Thomas was upset by Luke List as a near +200 underdog.

Luckily, both our matchup bets for day one – Abraham Ancer and Dustin Johnson – emerged victoriously. Now, we try to continue that positive momentum into the second day as I present another pair of plays for the second stage of round-robin play.

All odds come courtesy of BetMGM and are reflective at the time of writing.

I don’t want to fully say opponent Robert MacIntyre handed Morikawa his 2&1 victory on a silver platter, but he came awfully close.

The way the Scotsman was playing, Morikawa should have been lounging in the clubhouse by hole 12. Half of his six-hole victories came through a score of par, including once on a par 5. MacIntyre was +3 through 12 holes and only carded two birdies Wednesday.

On the flip-side, all but two of Garcia’s six-hole victories came via birdie or better, including an eagle on the par-5 12th hole. He also recorded only a single bogey through 15 holes of play.

We know Sergio is a huge fan of this course – he reached the knockout round last year AND is a freaking member at Austin Country Club. That home-course advantage should come in handy against Morikawa, who ranked out 19 spots lower than Garcia in my pre-tournament model.

Plus, there’s a glaring discrepancy between these two players in the Birdies or Better Gained metric in my model. Entering the tournament, Garcia ranked third in the field in that category, while Morikawa emerged an unimpressive 42nd in the field.

Unless Sergio magically loses his touch at Austin Country Club, I’d personally have him as the favorite in this match. Because he’s in plus-money, I have no choice but to fire on the Masters winner.

Let’s all hop aboard the “back Abe Ancer” train again shall we?

These two players went in opposite directions on opening day and I’m frankly shocked Ancer isn’t a bigger favorite. The Mexico international shot a six-under 65 Wednesday while Harman did hand opponent Webb Simpson his victory by shooting a two-over 73 while posting only two birdies.

I recognize there’s positive course history to be had with both players here, but Ancer also arrives with many advantages based on my pre-tournament model. He’s third in SG: approach to Harman’s 31st, first in SG: tee-to-green against Harman’s 31st, and second in Good Drives Gained to Harman’s 26th.

While Harman brought a pre-tournament advantage in SG: putting, Ancer put my concerns in that category to rest with his performance Wednesday.

Furthermore, Ancer has proven a Pete Dye design-whisperer in his last few outings. He’s gained strokes on the field in 10 straight events at Dye designs, including at last year’s Match Play. Overall, Ancer has won five of his last seven matches at Austin Country Club, so I believe he’s worth another follow tomorrow.

My projections make Ancer close to -140, so I’m happy to back him again at -125.