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Mondays will be devoted to the NFL as we fast approach the start of the 2018 preseason.

At first glance, current futures prices from William Hill suggest a wide-open race to the championship.

Nobody’s better than 15 percent to win the title.

Nine different teams check in between 8 and 13 percent (in the inflated universe created by the house edge).

Super Bowl LIII favorites
Team: Odds (Win equivalency)
Patriots: 13-2 (13 percent)
Rams: 8-1 (11)
Eagles: 17-2 (11)
Vikings: 10-1 (9)
49ers: 10-1 (9)
Packers: 12-1 (8)
Falcons: 12-1 (8)
Steelers: 12-1 (8)
Raiders: 12-1 (8)
Saints: 17-1 (6)
Jaguars: 20-1 (5)
Chargers: 20-1 (5)
Texans: 22-1 (4)

It’s actually wide-open just on the NFC side of the brackets. The Patriots are followed by six teams from the NFC. And the Raiders, a top AFC market threat to the Pats, are a bit of a phantom because the future “Las Vegas Raiders” are getting disproportionate fan interest in William Hill’s sphere. Hill’s “Regular Season Win” propositions list the Raiders as only the sixth-best team in the AFC.

You can see 13 teams register at 22/1 or better. If you add up the win percentages, the total is already clear of 100 percent! We’re at 105 percent with 19 long shots further down the ledger (including the Giants at 30/1 or 3 percent, and the Jets at 75/1 or 1 percent).

That’s the driving force behind today’s tip. Even though an “open” race may yield more attractive odds than you’re used to seeing on particular contenders, the house edge is still probably denying you true value on any futures bet. A good exercise is to write out your informed take on what the percentages should look like in a 100 percent universe. Calculate those implied odds, then compare to what you see on the board.

Popular choices such as the 49ers and Falcons might seem less appealing in that light (currently paying around 25/1 on offshore exchanges). But, your efforts might uncover value elsewhere that the market is still missing.

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