Though the Giants and Jets finish their 2019 exhibition slates Thursday night (versus the Patriots and Eagles, respectively), all NFL teams are already thinking about the regular season that begins next week. Thursday’s preseason finales are glorified scrimmages that don’t garner significant betting interest in legal jurisdictions.
Next week will be huge! Sports bettors are excited for the regular season to begin. Most make the mistake of focusing too much on teams and not enough on the market. It’s not enough to know the teams well. If the market knows what you know, there’s no edge to exploit.
What’s particularly exciting about both the Jets and the Giants this season is that they have the chance to exceed market expectations in a way that earns money for fans. Futures prices and projected regular-season point spreads suggest a low baseline well below “playoff caliber.”
- The Jets went 4-12 straight up, 5-11 against the spread last season. But there’s plenty of optimism about new coach Adam Gase creating a star in young quarterback Sam Darnold, as well as defensive improvement under new coordinator Gregg Williams. This team could catch oddsmakers and sharps napping out of the gate if improvement is real rather than “hoped for.”
- The Giants were 5-11 straight up and 8-7-1 ATS. This year’s roster is supposed to be healthier (physically and mentally) and definitely showed improved enthusiasm in early exhibitions. NFL teams have been known to make big jumps in the second season under a new head coach. Maybe Eli Manning has one last hurrah in him for Pat Shurmur. Or, maybe Daniel Jones has the skill sets to at least beat market expectations if he gets a shot.
We’re definitely talking about “maybe,” “if” and “could be” for both teams. That’s where money is made if you see the answers before everyone else. If you’re optimistic about either New York pro football franchise (or both), early market hurdles will be low.
As you handicap the rest of the NFL, be aware that there are limits to how much profit you can earn riding just one or two teams. Last season’s point-spread surprises were Chicago at 12-4 ATS, Cleveland 10-6 ATS and New Orleans 10-6 ATS. Nobody else was better than 9-7 versus the number. Two seasons ago, 11-5 ATS was the peak (New England and Minnesota).
Even if the Jets and Giants start off as bargains, the market will be charging a premium to bet them soon. Particularly in the sports media capital of the world.
The same principle is generally true in term’s of fading the same team week after week. That 5-10-1 ATS mark for the Jets was actually worst in the league of all 32 teams. The only true disaster of the last five years was Cleveland going 3-12-1 ATS in 2016.
The NFL is a league of parity. Educated markets are well informed on all pro football teams. Betting smart often means exploiting a slightly opened window before it closes.
