Football handicappers will be challenged this season trying to properly evaluate NFL defenses. Rule changes have made it more difficult to slow down high-octane offenses. And, evolving coaching strategies aren’t afraid to allow a lot of yards in the middle of the field as long as the screws tighten closer to the end zone.
The Eagles, who visit the Giants on Thursday, are a great example of the latter. They will endure stretches where opponents rack up yardage in the middle of the field. Getting into the end zone is a different story.
Earlier this season, VSiN encouraged you to focus on red-zone stats for offenses and defenses. Skill sets in that part of the field are likely to loom very large over who wins and covers games this season. Here are the current top red-zone defenses this season according to teamrankings.com.
2018 red-zone TDs allowed percentage
| Rank | Team | Pct. |
| 1st | Titans | 23.1 |
| 2nd | Jaguars | 36.8 |
| 3rd | Giants | 36.8 |
| 4th | Vikings | 38.1 |
| T-5th | Eagles | 40.0 |
| T-5th | Jets | 40.0 |
Both Thursday night TV teams show up on the list. If you’re wondering about the Jets, they’re tied for fifth at 40 percent with the Eagles, while facing a less potent schedule.
Last week, in a special feature, we talked about scoring on drives of 60 yards or more. That’s a great indicator for quality on both sides of the ball. Offenses can’t “fake” their way to scoring a lot of points on long drives. Defenses which prevent opponents from sustaining long drives are doing yeoman’s work this season.
2018 ppg allowed on 60+ yard drives
| Rank | Team | Pct. |
| 1st | Titans | 7.6 |
| T-2nd | Eagles | 8.6 |
| T-2nd | Jaguars | 8.6 |
| 4th | Browns | 9.4 |
| 5th | Ravens | 10.8 |
Those are great numbers for those five defenses in a high-scoring season. Cleveland played three overtimes! The Giants at 14.8 are near the league median, which means they’re allowing too many points from outside the red zone to be considered a truly elite defense just yet.
It will be interesting to see how the Giants’ “dink and dunk” offense will move the ball on the Eagles. That approach actually works well in the middle of the field. You may recall Eli Manning had huge passing totals in two meetings with Philadelphia last season, allowing the G-men to cover twice in close losses as underdogs.
Philadelphia is currently a three-point road favorite Thursday, with an Over/Under of 44 points. Totals bettors weren’t active early in the week because there was a chance of rain in the forecast. Be sure you monitor line moves throughout Thursday as the evening weather expectation solidifies.
