The most important, and probably the most exciting Friday matchup in college football will be No. 6 Oklahoma visiting No. 9 West Virginia (ESPN, 8 p.m.). The winner gets a berth in the Big 12 championship game. This could be the first of two consecutive meetings between these powers if No. 15 Texas is upset earlier in the day as a two-touchdown favorite at Kansas (FS1, noon).
Hey, if you liked this past Monday night’s Chiefs-Rams thriller in the NFL, you’re going to love Oklahoma football! The Sooners play shootouts like that whenever they run into potential threats.
- Oklahoma (-7) lost to Texas, 48-45, on a neutral field in Dallas. The Sooners won total yardage, 532-501, on 9.1 to 6.7 yards-per-play. But, a 3-0 loss in the turnover category was too much to overcome.
- Oklahoma (-14) won at Texas Tech, 51-46. The Sooners won total yardage, 683-473, on 8.6 to 6.7 yards-per-play. The final margin was closer than it should have been because of a 2-0 deficit in the turnover category.
- Oklahoma (-21¹/₂) snuck by Oklahoma State in Norman, 48-47. The Sooners won total yardage, 702-640, on 9.1 to 7.4 yards-per-play. The big road ’dog made much more efficient use of its drives, winning third-down conversions 63 percent to 30 percent.
While it might be thrill-packed for ticket-holders or TV viewers, those are obviously horrible results for Oklahoma bettors. The Sooners missed the point spreads by 10, 9, and 20¹/₂ points in tests that weren’t supposed to have so much drama. They are 3-7 ATS their last 10 games.
Friday, OU faces what’s supposed to be its stiffest challenge of 2018. West Virginia won at Texas. The Mountaineers have a strong home field that has been known to discourage the most potent of foes. That’s why Oklahoma opened at less than a field goal. And, that opener of -2¹/₂ was driven down to -2 or -1¹/₂ in early week betting across the globe.
Those scoreboard results in the 90s make it no surprise that an opening Over/Under of 82 was bet up to 84. How high is too high when track meets are a virtual certainty? Chiefs-Rams made it to 105.
Oklahoma’s key problems in big games have been:
- Porous defense that is consistently a step (or more) behind any target with speed. This makes it very difficult to force turnovers. Just one takeaway combined in the three games listed above.
- A high-risk, high-reward offense that strikes often for big plays, but doesn’t protect the ball as well as needed and doesn’t convert third downs in a manner that would give its own defense some rest.
This is obviously a fantastic offense. The Sooners could finish the season 13-1 straight up with record-setting volume. But, in terms of covering spreads against talented opponents, a 5-1 turnover loss coupled with a 44 percent to 39 percent deficit in third-down conversions are red flags.
Keep that in mind as you handicap Friday’s free-for-all, possibly next Saturday’s Big 12 Championship game, and whatever major bowl hosts the Sooners.
