Shea Patterson may be one of the most important college football players in the country this season. The new Michigan quarterback (a transfer from Ole Miss) is supposed to be the piece that completes head coach Jim Harbaugh’s puzzle.
Last season, Michigan’s offense looked inept in most of its challenge games. A full season “total offense” ranking of 105th actually understates the Wolverines’ big-game ineptitude. Look at these yards-per-play totals versus top competition. Keep in mind Michigan averaged 5.2 YPP in 2017 overall:
Malaise and Blue: YPP in 2017
- 4.1 vs. Michigan State
- 3.8 vs. Penn State
- 3.7 at Wisconsin
- 4.3 vs. Ohio State
- 3.6 vs. South Carolina
The Wolverines scored just 10-13-10-20-19 points in those five games, all losses. Worse, three of those were in Ann Arbor! The finale was in the Outback Bowl, where Michigan lost outright as a seven-point favorite to unimpressive South Carolina.
This for a team that betting markets and the media expected to shine under Harbaugh. Michigan was ranked 11th nationally in the 2017 preseason AP poll, but started 2-5-1 against the spread, then finished with a 14-point market miss in its bowl.
Michigan enters 2018 ranked No. 14 in the AP preseason poll. The Wolverines kick off their season Saturday night at No. 12 Notre Dame (7:30, NBC). Though pollsters see the Fighting Irish as the superior side, the market does not. The point spread has been pick ’em or Notre Dame -1 all week. Because home-field advantage is generally worth three points (and some would argue it might be worth even more under the watch of “Touchdown Jesus” in the north end zone), we can deduce that the Wolverines would be a neutral-field favorite over the Irish.
Patterson is the main reason.
Oddsmakers, and respected bettors who talk with their money expect big things. Michigan’s regular-season win total is nine. Betting over costs -155 on the money line, despite a schedule that includes games at Notre Dame, Michigan State and Ohio State, with home testers versus Wisconsin and Penn State.
Patterson’s stats for Ole Miss were superficially impressive in 2017 before he was injured against LSU, but those numbers were frontloaded versus non-threats South Alabama and Tennessee-Martin (28-of-35, 0 INTs, 429 yards, and 32-of-43, 1, 489 respectively). Against major competition, Patterson’s TD/INT ratio was just 8/8. His line at Alabama was a poor 14-29-2-165. Before leaving the LSU game injured, he was 10-23-3-116.
If Patterson is the answer, Michigan is going to storm through the first half of its 2018 schedule. If he’s only the kind of passer who can embarrass weak opponents, the Wolverines will be in big trouble against their toughest conference rivals in October and November. Handicap and bet accordingly.
