Though it was announced nearly a year ago, it has taken time for the news to register across the college football landscape. Ratings magnet and betting attraction Notre Dame won’t be on a major network Saturday night when it visits Duke (ACC Network, 7:30 p.m.)
Not on NBC (which has the rights only to home games), not on the ESPN/ABC family of networks, but on the fledgling ACC Network, which still is in the process of gaining a national broadcast foothold.
Casual fans and bettors might assume the matchup drifted to lower status because Notre Dame has been playing poorly in recent weeks. The Fighting Irish are 0-3 against the spread in their past three games, with a 45-14 blowout loss at Michigan sandwiched by home nail-biter wins as double-digit favorites over USC and Virginia Tech.
Though Notre Dame is 6-2 straight up, 4-4 ATS, it has missed expectations the past three weeks by 7¹/₂, 30 and 16¹/₂ points. Duke is also trending the wrong way ATS, dropping three of its past four, including a 30-point non-cover at Virginia.
But this telecast was locked in last December as part of a planned network marketing blitz that would include college basketball season-openers. If you have the ACC Network, you probably watched Notre Dame-North Carolina and Virginia-Syracuse on the hardwood this past Wednesday night.
The ACC Network was hoping for a better build-up for the debut of Notre Dame football. Bettors, on the other hand, are trying to figure out which slumping team is worth fading.
Sharps have taken strong early positions on Notre Dame at lines of -7 or less. Openers across the globe were -6, -6¹/₂ or -7, depending on the store. The point spread had moved to ND -8 late in the week. Any time a line blows through a key number like seven and sticks, it’s a sign of confident support. Sports books haven’t reached a number yet that has inspired Duke action, though there may be some ’dog lovers waiting patiently to see if the public pushes the line higher before kickoff.
Why do wise guys love the Irish at -7 or better? It’s mostly anti-Duke dough. The Blue Devils rank 100th in the nation in total offense, despite putting up more than 1,000 yards against non-majors North Carolina A&T and Middle Tennessee early in the season. During recent litmus tests in games with point spreads of +4 to -4, the Duke offense gained 288 yards with six turnovers versus Pittsburgh, 250 yards with five turnovers at Virginia, and 329 yards with three turnovers at North Carolina.
If that combination of poor yardage and turnover debacles happens again, Duke will get run off the field.
It’s important to note sharps aren’t betting Notre Dame at -8. If that’s the number you’re seeing, betting the Irish at -8 (or higher) would not be considered “siding with the sharps.”
Notre Dame still has a shot to finish the season 10-2 and earn a prominent bowl bid. Study Notre Dame-Duke closely so you can make smart bets the rest of the way.
