Everyone has a bad day occasionally. Cubs left-hander Jon Lester’s last start was his worst of the season. He was rocked for eight runs in three innings in a lopsided loss to St. Louis. While that’s certainly a red flag, it lowers the price on Lester today at Wrigley Field.

Chicago is 16-4 (+11.5 units) in Lester’s 20 starts this season. The Cubs lead the NL in batting average (.267), and the Diamondbacks rank 14th (.231). Arizona lefty Robbie Ray has been a bet-against pitcher for most of the season and has a 7.65 ERA in his past four starts. Javier Baez, Kris Bryant and the Cubs’ right-handed power hitters should get to Ray and give Lester the run support he needs to get back on the winning track.

The play: Cubs (-125) over Diamondbacks