Central Florida enjoys a rare prime-time TV showcase on a major network Saturday night when it plays host to Cincinnati (ABC, 8 p.m.). This will give pundits a chance to evaluate whether the undefeated Golden Knights deserve to be in the national playoff conversation, and bettors a chance to evaluate investment value for the coming bowls.
As we’ve discussed in the past, this has been a very tricky season for pinpointing where many college football powers stand in the big picture. There hasn’t been much connectivity between conference elites. Results have missed the market by a mile when quality teams have matched up. And there has been disagreement between polls and respected analytics as to which teams belong where on the totem pole.
There are three games Saturday matching teams in the Top 25 of the playoff rankings. Those are No. 24 Cincinnati at No. 11 UCF, No. 3 Notre Dame versus No. 12 Syracuse at Yankee Stadium, and No. 16 Iowa State at No. 15 Texas. Look at how those rankings compare to the widely used computer rankings published by Jeff Sagarin in USA Today:
| Team | CFP rank | Sagarin |
|---|---|---|
| Notre Dame | 3rd | 9th |
| Central Florida | 11th | 23rd |
| Syracuse | 12th | 34th |
| Texas | 15th | 18th |
| Iowa State | 16th | 25th |
| Cincinnati | 24th | 43rd |
Is UCF really that far behind Notre Dame (eight spots in the poll, 14 spots in Sagarin)? Betting markets don’t appear to believe that. The Golden Knights were just 23-point favorites at home against Navy. Notre Dame was recently a 21-point neutral field favorite versus Navy in San Diego. Using a standard three points for home field value, that suggests Notre Dame would be just a slight neutral-field favorite over UCF.
While not marquee, Saturday’s TV schedule should at least help clean the windshield. If you’re trying to pick and bet Cincinnati-UCF, be aware that this will be a real test for the hosts.
- Cincinnati will be the toughest opponent of the season for UCF according to Sagarin’s numbers. Only Pittsburgh (48) and Temple (49) from UCF’s schedule are currently in his Top 50. More than two-thirds of its opponents likely will finish outside the Top 80.
- The Bearcats currently rank No. 6 nationally in total defense. Granted that’s polluted by a soft schedule, but this is still a team that can defend within its class. Central Florida’s high-powered offense will face its sternest challenge of 2018.
- Sharps bet underdog Cincy at the opener of +7¹/₂. Sports books adjusted down to the key number of seven, which brought in public money on the favorite. That could set up a classic “Pros vs. Joes” battle between Cincinnati +7.5 and UCF -7.
Saturday’s appetizer for an imminent Thanksgiving feast will at least help handicappers better prepare for the coming New Year’s party.
