There was no greater surprise in football last year than the Cincinnati Bengals. On the backs of a young offensive core in Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins, and Ja’Marr Chase, a suddenly-explosive offensive exceeded all expectations and made it to the Super Bowl.

Certainly the expectation would be continued success. After all, that aforementioned young offensive core is intact and not going anywhere anytime soon – Tee Higgins is the only part of the Bengals group of skill players that will be a free agent after the 2023 season. 

Football, however, is not always linear. The previous year’s success is thrown out the window as a new season begins. We know the 2022 Bengals season will bring awesome new helmets – will it bring similar success to 2021?

Let’s take a look at the most basic of bets for the defending AFC Champions – their win total.

Spicy, right? Once you’ve had a chance to digest the take, come on back and you’ll find that there is plenty of reason to sell the idea of the Bengals repeating last year’s magic. 

The Bengals will begin the 2022 campaign with the sixth-hardest strength of schedule in the NFL. They open against the Pittsburgh Steelers, who turn the corner from the Ben Roethlisberger era, but feature plenty of talent on both sides of the ball. For Week 2, they will travel to Dallas, which will be a true test of their mettle. 

After that, the schedule lightens up with a matchup against the New York Jets in Week 3, but Week 4 in Miami against the Dolphins could be interesting. Tua Tagovailoa now has the addition of the most explosive wide receiver in football in Tyreek Hill. This offense has the potential to make any game a shootout. 

It’s the back half of the season that concerns me the most. The final eight games for the Bengals are against the Steelers, Titans, Chiefs, Browns, Buccaneers, Patriots, Bills, and Ravens. 

That’s quite the gauntlet. 

The Buccaneers and Bills are Super Bowl front-runners. The Patriots can’t be counted out with Bill Belichick at coach. The Ravens are aiming for a bounce back season with Lamar Jackson under center. The Chiefs are still the Chiefs, with Patrick Mahomes giving them a chance in any game. The Titans will welcome back Derrick Henry, who is capable of winning a game all on his own. 

If the Bengals survive those eight games and find themselves on the “over” side of their win total and in first place in their division, they will have fully earned it, and will be battle tested heading into the playoffs. 

Nevertheless, with that run of brutal matchups occupying more than half the season for the Bengals, who should find themselves in an improved division in the AFC North, betting on them to win double-digit games is not a wager that I would care to make. 

But it’s not just the schedule. Last year, Burrow was the most-sacked quarterback in the league (51), and resides in a division that features fierce pass rushers. The Bengals attempted to shore up their offensive line this offseason with the additions of La’el Collins, Alex Cappa, and Ted Karras, but it remains to be seen if it will pay dividends. Collins missed all of 2020 with a hip injury and faced a five-game suspension to start the 2021 season. 

The offensive line, and keeping Burrow upright, remains one of the biggest questions that the Bengals will face this season. While he was seemingly able to overcome it last season, being the most-sacked quarterback in football is an unsustainable recipe for success.