The Big Ten showdown between Ohio State and Wisconsin lost a little bit of luster when the Badgers were upset last Saturday, 24-23 at Illinois, as 29¹/₂-point favorites. Nevertheless, this is arguably the biggest game of the Saturday slate and has major College Football Playoff implications.
The look-ahead line was Ohio State -12 and it has been adjusted up to 14 or 14¹/₂ market wide. On the surface, that seems like a very small adjustment, but when you look at the numbers, you can see why oddsmakers were a bit skittish to move the line too far.
The Badgers still have the No. 1-rated defense in the country, which allows only 193.9 ypg. Wisconsin also rates No. 1 against the run (58.4 ypg) and the pass (135.4 ypg), on third-down defense (16.1 percent) and in points allowed (7.6). Ohio State, however, rates right behind them in many of those categories. It’s also a step up in class for an elite Badgers defense to try to stop the Buckeyes’ top five nationally rated offense.
The Buckeyes have won nine of the past 10 meetings, but Wisconsin coach Paul Chryst is 11-1 off of a loss during his five years in Madison.
This is probably one of the hardest games on the board to handicap because Ohio State has covered six in a row by an average of 22 points. But Wisconsin is the best team the Buckeyes will have faced, a team that has allowed 52 points in seven games and has shut out four opponents.
The total is interesting here, as it was placed at 50 and has been bet down slightly to 49¹/₂. We do, after all, have the top statistically rated defenses in the nation here. This total, however, seems on the short side for the Buckeyes, whose lowest point total all season was 34 against Michigan State (34-10). Wisconsin (12th in FBS at 39.7 ppg) also has a much more competent and consistent offense than do the Spartans.
The Badgers want to run the ball with the nation’s third-leading rusher, Jonathan Taylor (957 yards, 15 TDs), but the Buckeyes know that and will stack the box to make quarterback Jack Coan beat them down the field. These defenses can force turnovers and potentially get points that way or lead to short fields for easy scores from offenses that don’t necessarily need the help. This looks like a rare time when the recreational bettors aren’t looking to bet a Buckeyes game Over — and this is when we can catch the most value.
The play: Ohio State-Wisconsin, Over 50.
