


The coronavirus epidemic could halve global economic growth this year if it continues to spread outside China, an international economic-development agency warned Monday.
The outbreak may also cause the world economy to shrink this quarter for the first time since the financial crisis a decade ago, according to a special report on the impact of the virus from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
“The virus risks giving a further blow to a global economy that was already weakened by trade and political tensions,” OECD chief economist Laurence Boone said in a statement.
Global gross domestic product will grow by as little as 1.5 percent — roughly half the OECD’s previous projection of 2.9 percent — if the deadly virus spreads more widely in the Asia-Pacific region and other big economies, the Paris-based organization said.
The group expects a “sharp slowdown in world growth” in the first half of this year even if outbreaks of the virus are limited outside China, where it originated. In that case, global growth would shrink half a percentage point to 2.4 percent in 2020, with the possibility of negative growth in the first quarter of the year, the OECD said.
That would mark the first quarter-to-quarter shrinkage in the global economy since the end of 2008, when the financial crisis slammed businesses worldwide. The last full year in which the world economy shrank was 2009.
The coronavirus outbreak has disrupted supply chains around the world, caused tourism to decrease and fueled a massive stock selloff that gave Wall Street its worst week since the financial crisis as it has killed more than 3,000 people and sickened more than 89,000 worldwide.
Central banks such as the US Federal Reserve have pledged to take action to address the epidemic’s looming economic impact, though it’s not yet certain what form those actions will take.
The OECD urged world leaders to keep the epidemic in check and take steps to preserve jobs and lighten the blow to vulnerable industries such as travel, electronics and automobiles.
“Governments need to act immediately to contain the epidemic, support the health care system, protect people, shore up demand and provide a financial lifeline to households and businesses that are most affected,” Boone said.
With Post wires


