Dear John: If a remote worker in Chicago has three clients that he works for part time — one in Dallas, one in DC and one in Las Vegas — is that three jobs claimed by four jurisdictions, or three and three? As a part-time worker, will he show up in the U-6 count? J.A.
Dear J.A.: Ah, a riddle. And I’m going to let John Williams of ShadowStats.com answer it.
“In theory, if he gets paid from a payroll account of his customers (and he is self-employed), he would get counted four times in the payroll employment,” said Williams, who is one of the best at deciphering government statistical BS.
The payroll survey is the one every month that gives us the number of new jobs created.
“He would get counted only once in the household survey as employed either full time or part time, depending on how he answered the survey question,” says Williams.
As my readers already know, the household survey — also known as the current employment survey — is worthless. A census-taker asks if you are working. If you say no, you’re asked if you’ve been looking for a job.
If you say you are only working part time but would like full-time work, you end up being recorded in the so-called U-6 survey. The unemployment rate in that survey is currently 9.9 percent.
The survey you see in the paper every month showed unemployment at only 4.9 percent in February.
Dear John: How did the national debt increase by $1 trillion in the last year when the deficit was “only” $436 billion?
It doesn’t seem possible. Did Treasury Secretary Jack Lew suspend principal payments? T.F.
Dear T.F.: My friend John Williams of ShadowStats.com explained it this way: “Based on the US Treasury’s monthly financial statements and daily reporting of gross federal debt, the federal deficit for the 12 months through Jan. 31, 2016, was $405 billion.”
But in the 12 months through Jan. 31, 2016, the gross federal debt increased by $931 billion. Williams says that $860 billion of that increase was in just the three months since Oct. 31, 2015.
“What happened was the US Treasury had been operating under a debt ceiling from March 2015, with the Treasury taking ‘extraordinary’ accounting measures so as not to break the limit,” Williams said.
When the ceiling was eliminated in November 2015, the Treasury borrowed the debt that it otherwise had hidden in its operations that were not subject to the debt ceiling.
Since the Treasury is on a fiscal year that technically ends in September, the numbers — as you’ve discovered — don’t necessarily balance out.
Room for error in economic stats
Dear John: Thank you for shedding light on US economic statistics.
I wish there were integrity statistics that were released alongside the data given out by the government.
I am glad you can sift through the statistics and give the meaningful ones more weight.
It’s sad that these stats that many rely on are just political tools. Thanks for keeping the politics out and giving the Jack Webb version. G.L.
Dear G.L.: Jack Webb — wow, that goes back. I prefer to describe it as “CSI.”
Three things: First, I’ve seldom said that the economic data were manipulated for political reasons, although I don’t trust the Census Bureau on that count.
Second, most of the stats come with a margin of error, just like political polls.
Third, government agencies don’t claim that their economic statistics are correct on the first shot. That’s why they get revised over and over.
Dear Readers,
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