Logo
BusinessBusiness

Inflation came in hotter than expected last month — dimming hopes for another big interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve next month.

The Consumer Price Index rose 2.4% versus a year ago in September — above the 2.3% increase economists had expected, the Labor Department said on Thursday.

Month-over-month, the CPI rose 0.2% — steeper than the 0.1% increase economists had expected but even with the 0.2% number from August.

“Core” inflation — a metric closely watched by economists that excludes the volatile costs of food and energy, rose 3.3% versus a year ago, also ahead of economists’ prediction for a 3.2% year-over-year increase.

Stocks edged lower in early Thursday trades, with the Dow recently off 90 points at 42,421.


  Analysts on Wall Street eagerly awaited the latest inflation figures on Thursday morning. AP Analysts on Wall Street eagerly awaited the latest inflation figures on Thursday morning. AP

Inflation is a major concern for voters as they prepare to cast their ballots for the Nov. 5 election. Former President Donald Trump has pressed his case to the public that he would bring down prices that skyrocketed under President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris.

Larry Summers, the former Treasury secretary during the Clinton administration, said last week that the Fed erred by cutting interest rates last month.

“With the benefit of hindsight, the 50 basis point cut in September was a mistake though not one of great consequence,” Summers wrote on X.

While inflation has remained above the Fed’s 2% target on an annual basis, the central bank nonetheless slashed interest rates while shifting attention to the labor market, which had shown signs of weakening prior to the most recent jobs report.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics last week released a report which indicated that employers added 254,000 jobs to their payrolls in September — significantly higher than the 150,000 jobs that analysts had predicted.


  Inflation has shown signs of cooling in recent months — allowing the Federal Reserve to start slashing interest rates. AFP via Getty Images Inflation has shown signs of cooling in recent months — allowing the Federal Reserve to start slashing interest rates. AFP via Getty Images

For the Fed, last week’s much-stronger-than-expected jobs report fueled some concern that the economy might not be cooling enough to slow inflation sufficiently.

The central bank reduced its key rate by an outsized half-point last month, its first rate cut of any size in four years.

The Fed’s policymakers also signaled that they envisioned two additional quarter-point rate cuts in November and December.

The unemployment rate ticked down a notch from 4.2% in August to 4.1% last month, according to the BLS.

The government has also reported that the economy expanded at a solid 3% annual rate in the April-June quarter.

And growth likely continued at roughly that pace in the just-completed July-September quarter.


  Americans have borne the burden of high inflation in recent years as prices for goods have soared. AP Americans have borne the burden of high inflation in recent years as prices for goods have soared. AP

The stronger-than-expected jobs report prompted analysts to predict that the Fed would institute a more modest 25 basis point cut in November rather than another “jumbo” reduction of 50 basis points.

“We think the bar for the Fed to not cut rates at all in November is high,” Citi economist Veronica Clark wrote in a note to clients on Monday.

“Ultimately, we expect a still subdued inflation backdrop and a reemergence of weaker labor market trends in the next few months will have officials cutting rates by 50bp in December after a smaller 25bp cut in November.”

Stephanie Roth, chief economist at Wolfe Research, agreed, saying that a 50 basis point cut is “off the table” for November.

She told CNBC she anticipated that Thursday’s CPI “should be supportive” of a 25 basis point cut next month.

With Post wires

Comments
anonymous profile image
Powered by RoundtableBuilt on infrastructure designed for real-time media. Learn more at RTB.io.© Roundtable 2026. By using this site you agree to the Terms of Use and Privacy Policy