JPMorgan expects gold prices to hit $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026 – despite bullion suffering its sharpest one-day drop since 1983 on Friday.
Gold futures fell 0.9% Monday, continuing its descent following news that President Trump plans to nominate former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve – an expected pick that calmed investor nerves.
But JPMorgan expects gold prices to hit $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026 as investors and central banks continue to buy up the safe-haven asset.
JPMorgan expects gold prices to hit $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026. APThe brokerage said it forecasts central bank gold purchases at 800 tons this year.
“Even with the recent near-term volatility, we remain firmly bullishly convicted in gold over the medium-term on the back of a clean, structural, continued diversification trend that has further to run amid a still well-entrenched regime of real asset outperformance vs paper assets,” the bank said in a note Monday.
Gold is coming off a record-breaking run in 2025, setting 53 new all-time highs and surpassing 5,000 tonnes for the first time on record, according to the World Gold Council.
The annual average price jumped to $3,431 an ounce in 2025 – up 44% over the year.
Gold is coming off a record-breaking run in 2025, setting 53 new all-time highs. REUTERSDeutsche Bank also reiterated its forecast for gold to reach $6,000 by the end of 2026, while UBS and Société Générale see $6,200 and $6,000, respectively.
In previous forecasts, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Citi expected gold to hit $5,700, $5,400 and $5,000 this year, respectively.
Investors often buy gold as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty because of its ability to hold its value as other assets fall.
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Anxiety around Trump’s tariffs and their potential to cause inflation, stubbornly high interest rates, a weaker US dollar, last year’s record-breaking government shutdown and a slow labor market all contributed to gold’s explosive rise in 2025.
Meanwhile, central bankers around the world bought up gold en masse despite sky-high prices – likely a cautionary move linked to the Russia-Ukraine war and the war in Gaza, since central bankers typically increase reserves during geopolitical crises.
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter point three times in a row last year. Last week, the US central bank held rates steady, but it is expected to issue another cut sometime this year.
A lower interest rate typically leads to lower Treasury yields. That makes gold, which doesn’t pay interest, an even more attractive asset – making it more likely to climb this year.
