The Fed also believes the unemployment rate will soon decline to 3.6 percent, from the current 4.1 percent.

Here’s the problem with that forecast.

As the economy improves and folks start believing that it has, more people who have stopped looking for jobs will try to get back into the workforce. And when that happens, those newcomers will start showing up as unemployed in the Labor Department’s peculiar way of tabulating this figure.

So, at least at the beginning, the unemployment rate should rise if the economy gets better. That 3.6 percent prediction doesn’t seem to take that statistical quirk into account.