Maybe Wall Street isn’t yet feeling Grinchy enough.

Skittish about the holiday shopping outlook, some industry experts say retailers’ shares are showing the effects of too much egg nog.

After hitting rock-bottom at Christmastime last year, retail stocks have collectively gained more than 80 percent as fears about the credit crunch have receded, according to the Standard & Poor’s Retail Index.

That has especially boosted shares of debt-laden chains like Macy’s, Sears, Saks and Pier 1 Imports, which had faced worries about potential bankruptcy filings as recently as this spring.

While the latest quarterly results have been a relief to investors who had braced for the worst, mixed signals still abound for the crucial holiday period. Higher-priced fashions are having a particularly bumpy ride, as well-heeled shoppers increasingly demand bargain prices.

“We’re past the bottom, but it is not a straight line up,” said Bud Konheim, CEO of Nicole Miller. “Level is the new up.”

Spotty shopping patterns persist even as hopes rise that the housing and stock markets are finding their footing. Those hopes aren’t necessarily a safe bet — particularly given the state of the jobs market, says Matt Kaufler, portfolio manager at the Federated Clover Value Fund.

“Even if we’ve seen the peak of unemployment, unemployment is going to remain stubbornly elevated,” Kaufler said.

That’s an unusual pattern in the economy that some investors appear to have overlooked — particularly as they have bid up department stores and other mall-based retailers, Kaufler added.

Even optimists admit there are downsides to their analysis. Weekly growth in real wages — an excellent leading indicator for consumer spending — has been relatively strong of late, auguring well for the holidays, said Michael Niemira, chief economist for the International Council of Shopping Centers.

Still, Niemira added that a key driver of that real-wage growth has been the fact that retailers have been slashing prices.

Holiday sales will be the second-worst in 42 years, coming in flat versus last year’s historically dismal decline of 4.5 percent, consultant Retail Forward predicted yesterday.

While discounters will log a slight gain, demand for apparel and accessories will drop about 2 percent, according to the firm.