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Where will you spend your share of the $9.6 billion motorists will be saving at the pump?

While many on Wall Street see Americans spending their pump savings at retail during the just-started holiday shopping season, the bankers at Wells Fargo are taking a more bah-humbug approach.

The savings from the 21 percent decline in gas prices — to an average $2.89 a gallon on Monday, according to AAA — is most likely to be felt not in department stores but in supermarkets and smaller food and beverage stores, Wells Fargo analyst Gina Martin Adams said in a report Monday.

“[W]e find that at least over the last twenty years, consumers have shown little positive response to falling prices at the pump,” Adams writes.

“Unfortunately for US consumer companies, the bulk of the historical evidence suggests the consumer may not spend their savings at the pump at retail. Indeed, lower gas prices do not usually result in acceleration in sales for US retailers at large,” the report claims.

Pencil pushers say that for every 10-cent decline in gas prices, $3 billion is unlocked — to be spent by motorists whenever they want.

Over the past year, gas prices have fallen from an average of $3.21 a gallon to $2.89 — a drop of 32 cents. That means $9.6 billion will be saved.

While an annualized number, the savings is about 1.5 percent of the $602 billion the National Retail Federation forecasts will be spent at retail over the last six weeks of the year. Holiday spending is expected to grow 4.1 percent, according to the NRF.

While the savings at the pump are real, Wells Fargo believes precious little of it will find its way to department stores and such. In fact, retail spending tends to rise alongside gas prices — and fall in tandem with pump prices.

Go figure.

“In other words, as gas prices fall, history suggests investors should be careful not to assume consumers will spend the cash at retail,” Adams writes.

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