Mother Nature is handing New Yorkers her own version of an energy-savings program – a warm winter that can cut hundreds of dollars from your heating bill.
A new long-range forecast said the tristate area could have a balmy Christmas and a series of 40-degree days in January and February.
“It’s going to be a warmer-than-usual winter and this will help us use less energy than we normally would,” said Joe Bastardi, chief long-range forecaster at AccuWeather.
But Thanksgiving could be frigid, ushering in a sudden plunge in the mercury and possibly snow, said Bastardi, whose track record is within a degree or two in accuracy.
“From the middle of November to mid-December, the temperatures will dip quickly to be colder than usual,” he said. “But then they’ll flip back up to remain above normal for the rest of the winter.”
He expects Central Park’s temperatures for December and February to be 4 degrees above the average of 35 degrees.
As of yesterday, the cost of heating oil for local homeowners was 51 percent higher than the year-earlier period, said Peter Beutel, energy analyst at Cameron Hanover. Natural gas costs are about 10 percent higher.
“A typical homeowner using oil could be paying as much as $4,000 this winter to heat his home,” said Beutel. “Any drop [in price] is good news.”
Each one-penny rise in the price of wholesale heating oil adds about $10 per average tank filling.
Analysts said energy savings tied to the warm weather could help ease an expected slowdown in holiday shopping.
Heating oil dropped 8 cents yesterday to $2.5021 a gallon wholesale. Speculators dumped long-term bets on its rise, causing futures to fall 3.1 percent, the biggest slide since August.
AccuWeather advises energy traders on winter’s weather patterns to help them hedge their supplies. With the rampant rise in energy speculation, AccuWeather’s client base has tripled in the past year, Bastardi said.
Meanwhile, the $100-a-barrel threat for crude oil also fizzled when the December futures contract to buy oil at that price expired with a value of zero. It raised hopes for energy users that oil’s run-up may be cooling.
Crude for December delivery fell $3.45 a barrel, or 3.7 percent, to $91.17, the lowest close since Oct. 30.
