The eye test is supposed to favor Rutgers, but there will be a lot of sleepless hours leading up to Selection Sunday. 

Faced with an opportunity to secure a second straight trip to the NCAA Tournament and gifted a favorable path to the Big Ten tournament final, fourth-seeded Rutgers instead fell flat Friday afternoon in an 84-74 quarterfinal loss to fifth-seeded Iowa in Indianapolis. 

Now, the Scarlet Knights will become college basketball’s poster team for the metrics-versus-eye-test debate, hoping to become the first school to receive an at-large berth with a NET ranking worse than 73, which St. John’s had in 2019, since the system was created in 2018. 

“I can’t be any more confident,” coach Steve Pikiell said. “I think we win [tournament] games, too.” 

Rutgers (18-13) earned a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament with its best regular-season conference record (12-8) in eight seasons as a member. A historic stretch of four straight wins against ranked teams folds into a 6-6 record against Quad 1 opponents. 

Why is Rutgers on the bubble? Because of a soft non-conference schedule that includes a Quad 4 loss to Lafayette, just four wins away from home and a NET of 77 — all incongruous with a senior-laden roster motivated by a heartbreaking second-round exit last March. 

“If we’re not in, I don’t know what to tell you,” forward Ron Harper Jr. said through a chuckle of disbelief. “I feel like this team has proven itself. Every time we come off a tough loss, we bounce back. This team definitely deserves to play in March, and I feel like we can make a lot of noise.” 

This certainly qualifies as a tough loss. Friday started with the dual promise of Rutgers’ Board of Governors ratifying a four-year, $16 million contract extension that locks up Pikiell through 2030 and includes a prohibitive $15 million buyout for poacher schools, as well as with No. 1 seed Illinois losing to Indiana to open up the top half of the tournament bracket. 

But Iowa, still stinging from a 48-46 loss in Piscataway on Jan. 19 that was marked by a season-low scoring output and controversial decisive whistle, had other plans than allowing Rutgers to reach its first conference tournament semifinals since wreaking havoc on the Big East in 1998. After raining 19 3-pointers on punchless Northwestern, the Hawkeyes said they “wanted” a rematch with the Scarlet Knights. 

Rutgers jumped out to a quick 10-point lead, only to be undone by a six-minute drought without a field goal in the middle of the first half. Iowa dropped into a zone defense that forced nine straight missed shots, used a 15-1 run to take a 28-20 lead and led by as many as 18 in the second half. 

“We scored enough points,” guard Geo Baker said. “We didn’t get enough stops.” 

Iowa coach Fran McCaffery cannot comprehend how Rutgers could be left out of March Madness. 

“I’m kind of baffled by the question,” he said. “To me, it’s a no brainer.” 

The ugliest part of the loss was that Rutgers strength and conditioning coach David VanDyke received two separate technical fouls and was ejected for barking at the officials from the end of the bench. The Scarlet Knights were called for 24 personal fouls to 14 for the Hawkeyes and were outscored 25-10 at the free-throw line in a tightly whistled game between two physical teams. The teams combined for six technical fouls. 

“It’s on me,” Pikiell said of Van Dyke’s actions. “We have to do a better job. I have no idea [what happened]. We’ll sift through it.” 

Baker scored 23 points and Cliff Omoruyi added 17, but it wasn’t enough when Rutgers’ bench contributed zero points and Harper, a First-Team All-Big Ten selection, was held to 13 on 5-for-16 shooting. Iowa’s Keegan Murray finished with 26 points and eight rebounds. 

“There were minutes that we weren’t us,” Pikiell said. “That’s what bothered me the most. That’s on me, but we’ll be ready for the next one.” 

If there is one.