PHILADELPHIA — The odds are long yet again, just as they were against Kentucky and Murray State.
Saint Peter’s is a 12.5-point underdog in Friday’s Sweet 16 against No. 3 Purdue, a long shot to become the first 15-seed to reach the Elite Eight.
But Shaheen Holloway’s plucky Peacocks have a chance, albeit a slim one, says one coach familiar with both teams. Cue Lloyd Christmas in “Dumb & Dumber.”
“The short answer is: ‘Yes, I think they can win the game,’ ” the coach said, speaking on condition of anonymity. “It all comes down to whether or not they can control the way the game is played, and the problem is Purdue is as good as any team in the country at controlling the way the game is played.
“You would be a fool to think if they played 10 games, Purdue wouldn’t win nine of them. But in the NCAA Tournament, you only have to beat them once.”
For Saint Peter’s to pull off its third straight upset, it has to make the Boilermakers uncomfortable, the coach said. It must create a chaotic and frenzied tempo in order for the Peacocks’ quickness and athleticism to be a factor. Purdue has the decided size and strength advantage. It will have the best player on the floor in projected top-five draft pick Jaden Ivey. Saint Peter’s won’t have an answer for 7-foot-4 center Zach Edey or even 6-10 forward Trevion Williams. And if it double-teams them, then Purdue is lethal from deep, shooting 39 percent from 3-point range.
Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey Getty Images
Saint Peter’s KC Ndefo (11) and Fousseyni Drame, left, close in on Murray State’s KJ Williams. AP“If you’re letting Purdue play half-court offense and run their stuff, I don’t think anybody is going to beat them, let alone a team that has a size disadvantage that Saint Peter’s will have,” the coach said, a nod to the Boilermakers’ second-ranked offense in terms of efficiency. “But Saint Peter’s can turn you over. Saint Peter’s can be really aggressive defensively. Saint Peter’s can use their speed and athleticism to make you uncomfortable. They can recover defensively because they block a lot of shots.”
At the other end of the floor Saint Peter’s can hurt Purdue, which has a defense that is ranked 87th nationally. It was middle of the pack in the Big Ten in field-goal percentage defense and 3-point percentage defense. The coach believes the Peacocks need to attack and force the Boilermakers to defend on the move, so their height isn’t as much of a factor and Saint Peter’s edge in foot speed comes into play.
“This isn’t an elite defensive team. Their size is imposing and if you let them settle in and use their size — they’ve got a goalie in there with Edey — let them play team defense, they’re going to be a lot better,” the coach said. “Saint Peter’s has to find a way to not allow Purdue to bully them.”
That will be the key for Holloway’s team, if it can impose its will as it did against Kentucky and Murray State, which helped neutralize the talent and size differential. In both of those games, the Peacocks played smarter, harder and executed better. Now, they have to do it again, against arguably the most talented opponent they have faced during this run.
“Styles make fights,” the coach said. “This game has to be frenetic and chaotic and aggressive for Saint Peter’s to have a chance.”
