That sound you hear is the emptying of the Duke bandwagon, a mass exodus, the same people who predicted dominance now distancing themselves from a team they believed would roll to the Final Four.
But they’ll be back. This is just temporary. How do I know? We saw the same reaction in 2013-14, when Kentucky went from a preseason dynamo to a January disappointment to a March Cinderella, going from a No. 8 seed to a national runner-up.
Like that Kentucky team, Duke has too much talent, too many potential lottery picks, too much pedigree, to let this slide continue. Like that Kentucky team, there was over-the-top talk of a perfect season, followed by an early burial.
There are off-the-court issues, which those Wildcats didn’t have to deal with. Coach Mike Krzyzewski is away from the team until early February, after undergoing back surgery, replaced by assistant Jeff Capel. Junior Grayson Allen, a preseason player of the year candidate, was suspended one game for his third tripping incident since last year, and seems to get mixed up into some extracurricular act every game.
But, let’s consider Duke’s résumé. Of their four losses, three have come to potential Final Four teams Kansas, Florida State and Louisville. The other loss was on the road at Virginia Tech, a likely NCAA Tournament team, the game Allen was suspended. Duke has defeated quality opponents such as Michigan State and Florida.
Elite freshmen forwards Harry Giles and Marques Bolden are still playing their way into shape after missing a combined 19 games due to injuries — Giles rebounding from knee surgery, Bolden a leg problem. Graduate senior Amile Jefferson, the team’s rock, missed the losses to Florida State and Louisville with a foot injury.
That Kentucky group lost a few non-conference games to top-ranked opponents, and stumbled in conference against inferior opposition. Like Duke, there weren’t set roles. All the talent created problems, players used to being the star having trouble making adjustments. Eventually, it worked itself out, through struggles.
In that run to the Final Four, the Wildcats talked about all the lessons they learned during the topsy-turvy regular season, how it prepared them for March, and made them tougher, the negativity bringing them closer together.
There’s no guarantee the same happens to Duke. The season could spiral downward, and may end early in March. But the talent is there. The recruiting rankings aren’t all wrong. The hype was warranted. Some freshmen take longer to adjust to the college game, particularly ones dealing with injuries. There is ample championship experience, within the coaching staff and on the floor. Allen and Jefferson were significant contributors to the 2014-15 title team, a group featuring three one-and-done freshmen. Allen, Frank Jackson and Luke Kennard make up one of the most potent perimeter attacks in the country, and the front court is loaded with next-level prospects.
We’ve seen this movie before. It usually leads to fond March memories.
Bluejay watching
Creighton’s Justin Patton and Martin KrampljGetty ImagesDo yourself a favor and watch Creighton. There are a number of fun offensive teams, from UCLA to Kentucky, Oregon to Notre Dame, but the Bluejays may be the most aesthetically pleasing.
They have a likely lottery pick in 7-footer Justin Patton, the nation’s assists leader in point guard Maurice Watson Jr. and an army of 3-point marksmen. Their only loss was a 10-point setback to top-ranked Villanova, largely because Watson was in foul trouble. Creighton sells out virtually every home game, and plays at three speeds: fast, faster and fastest, averaging 87.6 points per game.
The seventh-ranked Bluejays added to their already impressive résumé on Monday, edging Xavier on the road, despite Watson missing most of the game with a knee injury. Coach Greg McDermott said it isn’t believed to be a ligament injury, which is good news for Creighton. This is a strong Final Four contender with the speedy lead guard.
Analyze this!
The news this week that a number of officials will meet with analytics experts Friday to potentially create a new standard of analysis, maybe replacing the RPI, is good for the NCAA. It’s good for March. It’s good for the sport.
The NCAA Tournament is one of the great sporting events of the year, arguably the best, so why not do everything possible to have the best 68 teams involved? I attended the NCAA Tournament’s mock selection last February, and was amazed about how intricate and detailed the process of selecting the teams are. Adding to it with even more scientific data can only help ensure the best possible tournament. I see no downside to this.
Game of the Week
No. 14 Arizona at No. 3 UCLA, Saturday, 4 p.m.
“Showtime” is back in Southern California, but in the college ranks at UCLA, where heralded freshman point guard Lonzo Ball has more than lived up to the hype, leading the Bruins’ high-octane attack. Arizona, meanwhile, has flown under the radar in the Pac-12, but the Wildcats, winners of 10 straight, have emerged despite the mysterious season-long suspension (up to this point) of star guard Allonzo Trier, and career-ending injury to wing Ray Smith.
Stock Watch
Up: Oregon
The 11th-ranked Ducks early-season woes are a distant memory now, courtesy of 14 straight wins. Oregon, the only team to
beat UCLA, has hit its stride, living up to the preseason hype. Chris Boucher, Dylan Ennis, Dillon Brooks and Tyler Dorsey have delivered as expected, but the jump made by forward Jordan Bell has been a surprise, the 6-foot-9 junior averaging 10.2 points, 8.0 rebounds and 2.2 blocks, numbers that dwarf his production from a year ago.
Up: Mike Brey
Notre Dame head coach Mike BreyAPOne of the most underrated coaches annually, he has No. 15 Notre Dame all alone atop the rugged ACC. Every year, the Irish lose stars to the NBA, and every year, Brey develops a role player into an elite upperclassman. This season, that player is lead guard Matt Farrell, a New Jersey native who has more than tripled his averages from a year ago, averaging 14.1 points, 5.4 assists and shooting 40 percent from 3-point land.
Down: Kevin Ollie
First he lost a major recruit in his backyard, five-star shooting guard Hamidou Diallo, then his team blew a 14-point, second-half lead at mediocre Georgetown on Saturday. UConn, which has battled injury issues, losing top freshman Alterique Gilbert (left shoulder) and VCU transfer Terry Larrier (ACL), is closer to the AAC basement than the penthouse. At 7-10 overall, the Huskies are on pace to win their fewest games since the 9-19 campaign of 1986-87, Jim Calhoun’s first year as coach.
Down: SEC
Remember all that talk about how much improved the SEC would be? Well, it was just that, talk. Nothing but hot air. The football-first conference remains No. 6 Kentucky and everyone else. The league has one win — yes, one — against top 25 RPI teams in 33 tries. That one win was Kentucky’s victory over North Carolina. No. 19 Florida’s best win is over Seton Hall, while South Carolina lacks a marquee victory. At best, this is a four-bid conference if one of the aforementioned three doesn’t win the league’s postseason tournament.
Super 16
A prediction of the top four seeds in the NCAA Tournament (listed in order):
1: UCLA, Kentucky, Villanova, Gonzaga
2: Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia, North Carolina
3: Creighton, Florida State, Louisville, Oregon
4: Virginia, Duke, Butler, Arizona



