As one of the dullest Oscar races in recent memory finally grinds to a halt Sunday night, I dont think you should expect much in the way of surprises, at least in the Best Picture and leading acting categories.

I’m not-so-fearlessly predicting that “The King’s Speech,” which took the lead a month ago after upset victories in the actors, directors and producers’ guild awards, will take home the gold once again.

Some of my fellow prognosticators say “The Social Network” will win Best Picture, but that’s probably wishful thinking from spin doctors who can’t accept they were wrong about dismissing “The King’s Speech” as a glorified TV movie.

Which it isn’t. What gives “The King’s Speech” the Oscar edge over “The Social Network” — my favorite movie, by the way, of 2010 — is a protagonist who’s triumphed over adversity. Instead of a cold-hearted techno-geek who doesn’t know what he did wrong.

When Oscar nominations were announced a month ago, I predicted that David Fincher would win Best Director for “The Social Network.” While many so-called experts are calling for this fairly rare split to occur, the odds are now 90 percent that the prize will go to Tom Hooper for “The King’s Speech.”

That’s because Hooper won the highly predictive Director’s Guild of America award. Not even Fincher’s surprise win on Hooper’s home turf at the British academy awards two weeks ago is going to change that.

Roughly nobody, including me, thinks that Colin Firth, as the stuttering King George VI in “The King’s Speech,” can be beaten for Best Actor. Annette Bening (“The Kids Are All Right”) has a very distant chance of pulling an upset over Natalie Portman’s tour-de-force as a demented ballerina in “Black Swan,” but I won’t bet any money on it.

I’m willing to go for the underdogs in the more volatile supporting races, where I think the Screen Actors Guild winners — Christian Bale and Melissa Leo, cited for their over-the-top hamming in “The Fighter” — are vulnerable to upsets. Bale will likely be swept aside by the tide for the “King’s Speech” — Firth’s performance is really inseparable from Geoffrey Rush’s superb supporting work as his speech therapist.

The supporting actress prize has gone several times to young debuting performers — and I think it will be scooped up by teenaged Hailee Steinfeld, who deserves the lion’s share of credit for the successful remake of “True Grit.” Leo didn’t help herself by taking out “For Your Consideration” ads pointing out her age in a category where youth often triumphs.

Here are my predictions in all of the other categories:

ANIMATED FEATURE: “Toy Story 3”

CINEMATOGRAPHY: “True Grit”

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: “The Social Network”

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: “The King’s Speech”

ART DIRECTION: “The King’s Speech”

COSTUME DESIGN: “The King’s Speech”

FILM EDITING: “The King’s Speech”

SCORE: “The King’s Speech.”

SONG: “Toy Story 3”

SOUND EDITING: “Inception”

SOUND MIXING: “Inception”

VISUAL EFFECTS: “Inception”

MAKEUP: “The Wolfman”

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: “In A Better World”

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: “Inside Job”

DOCUMENTARY SHORT: “Strangers No More”

ANIMATED SHORT: “The Gruffalo”

LIVE ACTION SHORT: “God of Love”