I just posted my first set of predictions in the major categories to The Buzzmeter at the L.A. Times’ The Envelope. It’s still pretty much a guessing game at this point — I haven’t seen “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” “Revotionary Road” and “Grand Torino,” three pictures I hold out great hopes for, nor “Australia” and “The Reader.” I did see the deeply moving “Milk” this morning, which I think may nail the zeitgeist better than any of the others and contains a totally surprising performance by Sean Penn and I’ll post something by tomorrow morning.

My predictions — consider them a rough draft — are on the jump:

PICTURE

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (unseen)

Milk

Slumdog Millionaire

Revolutionary Road (unseen)

Gran Torino (unseen)

DIRECTOR

Fincher, Benjamin Button (unseen)

Van Sant, Milk

Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire

Eastwood, Gran Torino (unseen)

Nolan, The Dark Knight

ACTOR

Penn, Milk

Langella, Frost/Nixon

Eastwood, Gran Torino (unseen)

Del Toro, Che

Jenkins, The Visitor

ACTRESS

Streep, Doubt

Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married

Jolie, Changeling

Scott-Thomas, I’ve Loved You So Long

Melissa Leo, Frozen River

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Ledger, TDK

P.S. Hoffman, Doubt

Downey, Tropic Thunder

Fiennes, Duchess

Jason Butler Harner, Changeling

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Viola Davis, Doubt

Cruz, VCB

Marisa Tomei, Wrestler

Taraji P. Henson, Benjamin Button (unseen)

Rosemary DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Milk

Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Wall-E

Changeling

Synecdoche, NY

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Benjamin Button (unseen)

Slumdog

Doubt

Frost/Nixon

Revolutionary Road (unseen)