I’ve finally filed an updated set of predictions for the major categories to The Buzzmeter, including my fearless (reckless?) prognostication that Mickey Rourke will get snubbed as best actor for “The Wrestler,” which reporedly has not been playing well for awards voters, opening the way for a surprise nod for Richard Jenkins of “The Visitor.” And the risk of unleashing yet another round of hate mail from fans of “The Dark Knight,” I’ve elaborated on my previous prediction that Heath Ledger will be nominated for supporting actor but will not win. Based on his surprise nomination for the Screen Actors Guild in this category, I am going way out on a limb and predicting that Dev Patel of “Slumdog Millionaire” will shock the audience and take the supporting actor Oscar. It’s Patel’s first movie? Well, Dr. Haing S. Ngor won for his debut in “The Killing Fields,” and he didn’t even appear on a TV series like Patel did. And, unlike Ledger, a win would boost Patel’s career. As for Ledger, there isn’t much historical support for a win; posthumous nominations, which are rare, generally function as awards.

The only one of the seven posthumous nominations to result in a win was Peter Finch’s best actor triumph for “Network” (1976). Unlike any of the other posthumous nominees, Finch actively campaigned for a nomination — resisting MGM’s efforts to slot him in the supporting category — right up to his death on January 14, 1977. A more apt comparison for Ledger is James Dean, another cult figure who scored nominations in consecutive years after he was killed in a car crash in September 1955, for “East of Eden” (1955), as best actor, and the posthumously released “Giant” (1956), as best supporting actor — and lost both times. And then there’s the legendary Jeanne Eagels, who like Ledger died of a drug overdose (heroin was this diva’s drug of choice) and was nominated as best actress in Oscar’s second season for the 1929 version of “The Letter.” The other unsuccessful posthumous nominees were Spencer Tracy for “Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner” (1967), Ralph Richardson for “Greystoke” (1984) and Massimo Troisi for “Il Postino” (1995), all of whom expired shortly after shooting wrapped on their movies.

BEST PICTURE

Slumdog Millionaire

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Milk

Frost/Nixon

Doubt

BEST DIRECTOR

Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire

David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Gus Van Sant, Milk

Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon

Chris Nolan, The Dark Knight

BEST ACTOR

Sean Penn, Milk

Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon

Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino

Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Richard Jenkins, The Visitor

BEST ACTRESS

Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

Meryl Streep, Doubt

Kristen Scott-Thomas, I’ve Loved You So Long

Angelina Jolie, Changeling

Cate Blanchett, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire

Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt

Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder

James Brolin, Milk

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Viola Davis, Doubt

Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Amy Adams, Doubt