Thanks to the surprise upset by “The King’s Speech” over “The Social Network” at the Producers Guild of America awards over the weekend, there’s considerable speculation among Oscar pundits that “The Social Network” no longer seems a sure winner on Oscar night. Keep in mind that producers have matched the Oscar winner only 67 percent of the time during their awards 21-year history.
Major clues will of course be provided when the academy unveils its nominations around 8:45 a.m. EST tomorrow morning. Oscar ballots closed on Friday January 14, two days before the Golden Globes, where “The Social Network” pulled off the upset and became the Globe winner since “Schindler’s List” that also had top prizes from the National Board of Review, The New York Film Critics Circle, the Los Angeles Film Critics Association and the National Association of Film Critics and countless other groups.
Because it’s a period picture and will likely pick up many craft nominations in categories like costumes, sets and hairstyles not available to “The Social Network,” I’d guess that “The King’s Speech” will lead Oscar nominations tomorrow, with nods for Best Picture, director Tom Hooper, the screenplay and for Colin Firth (a prohibitive favorite for Best Actor), Geoffrey Rush and Helena Bonham-Carter.
It’s not a good sign for “The Social Network” if it fails to pick up nominations for both Jesse Eisenberg (Best Actor) and Best Supporting Actor (Andrew Garfield), as the actors branch, which makes the nominations, is the largest in the academy. Conversely, if the actor’s branch somehow nominates both Garfield and Justin Timberlake for Best Supporting Actor that augurs very well indeed for “The Social Network” on Oscar night.
Another film to watch is the putative surprise winner, “Black Swan” which has a lot of detractors but could do well because of Oscar’s weighed balloting system, which helps films with a relatively small but very passionate following, especially in a field of 10. It’s a given that Natalie Portman will be nominated for Best Actress (and probably win over her only real rival, Annette Bening of “The Kids Are All Right”). But does “Black Swan” have enough support among the actor’s branch to also get a supporting nomination for Mila Kunis — or possibly Barbara Hershey, who got one from the British academy last week? That would give it a leg up in the Best Picture race.
Of the Best Picture candidates, the one most likely to fall off the list is “127 Hours.” Reportedly Fox Searchlight has had a hard time getting wussy academy members to watch their screeners because of the arm-serving scene, and it sure doesn’t help that star James Franco unwisely agreed to co-host this year’s ceremony. It might actually cost him a deserved Best Actor nomination tomorrow. If “127 Hours” falls off the list, the likeliest replacements are the British “Another Year” or the low-budget indie “Winter’s Bone.” Because the academy has decreed there has to be 10 nominees again this year.
Another interesting question is whether Hailee Steinfeld, who everyone agrees was the best thing about the “True Grit” remake, gets a nomination. Paramount is pushing her for Best Supporting Actress, though she is the main protagonist of the Coen’ Brothers remake. The British academy has nominated her for best actress, but Oscar voters are free to nominate her in either categories. So she may split her votes and not get nominated at all. It’s the same problem in reverse for the brilliant Leslie Manville in “Another Year,” who is being campaigned for Best Actress by the U.S. distributor, Sony Pictures Classics. In her native country, she is contending for best supporting Actress at the BAFTAs. I think the Brits are right.
