ALTHOUGH this was hardly a banner season for Broadway (attendance and box-office receipts are down, the shows are pretty uninspiring), there is some excitement to be had in handicapping the Tonys, which will be doled out Sunday night at Radio City Music Hall.

A highly unscientific survey of 15 Tony voters (there are 731 in all, all theater insiders), indicates that the races in several categories have tightened up considerably in the past few days.

Only a week ago, “Thoroughly Modern Millie” seemed a shoo-in for Best Musical, the award that usually means the most at the box office.

But the majority of voters interviewed for this article, while predicting “Millie” would win, said they’d cast their votes for “Urinetown.”

The show’s biggest champions are members of the Dramatists Guild (50 votes) and the first-night press list (nearly 150 votes).

These voters find “Millie” tediously old-fashioned and want to reward the young creators of the hip, ironic “Urinetown.”

Says one prominent Broadway lyricist: “If ‘Urinetown’ wins, it’s a sign that Broadway is encouraging something new. If ‘Millie’ wins, it’s just business as usual.”

Business as usual, though, is probably why “Millie” will pull it out.

Its supporters are out-of-town theater owners and producers (more than 100 votes), who stand to make money on a Tony Award-winning “Millie” when it goes on tour next year.

(These folks, some of whom are investors in “Millie,” have already made plenty of money on “Mamma Mia!,” which has been touring the country for a year without benefit of a Tony.)

Also supporting “Millie” are a lot of New York theater producers (more than 200 votes), largely for political reasons: They’re annoyed at Dodger Theatricals, a producer of “Urinetown,” for pulling out of their trade group, the League of American Theatres and Producers.

“This is a way of sticking it to the Dodgers,” one League member says. “Let them go their own way – without a Tony.”

“Millie” will win, but “Urinetown” writers Mark Hollman and Greg Kotis won’t go home empty-handed, since they’ll win Tonys for their book and score.

John Rando will pick up a medallion, too, for his direction of the show.

For Best Play, the race between “Metamorphoses,” the collection of Ovid myths set in a swimming pool, and “The Goat,” Edward Albee’s comic drama about a man who falls in love with a goat, is almost too close to call.

The voters interviewed for this article are split right down the middle (though there are a few stray votes for “Fortune’s Fool”).

” ‘Metamorphoses’ isn’t really a play, but as a total theater experience, it’s wonderful,” says one voter, summing up the general feeling about the show.

There is, however, a lot of sentiment for giving Albee, that grand old man of American playwrighting, a Tony, even though nobody thinks “The Goat” is his best effort.

For that reason, I’ll give the edge to “The Goat.”

“Metamorphoses” will be honored with a Tony for its director,Mary Zimmerman.

The pool was her idea.

The race for Best Musical Revival is another tight one.

Director Trevor Nunn’s “Oklahoma!” – hailed in London as a milestone production – is boring Tony voters over here, while “Into the Woods” is getting a surprisingly warm reception.

“The disappointment factor with ‘Oklahoma!’ is huge,” says one voter. “We expected something really great, and instead we got Trevor’s summer stock production.”

Still, “Oklahoma!” will probably win, if only because the unpopular Dodgers are behind “Into the Woods.”

You can bet the Riviera that the savagely funny “Private Lives” will beat out “The Crucible” for Best Revival of a Play.

It has the support of all 15 voters canvassed for this article.

Tim Hatley’s wonderful sets – first act, a phallus-like stack of hotel balconies; second act, a giant vulva-shaped Paris living room – will also nab a Tony, as will Jenny Beaven’s nicely decadent costumes.

In the acting categories the sure bets are: Lindsay Duncan (lead, “Private Lives”), Alan Bates (lead, “Fortune’s Fool”), Sutton Foster (lead, “Millie”), Shuler Hensley (supporting, “Oklahoma!”), Katie Finneran (supporting, “Noises Off”) and Frank Langella (supporting, “Fortune’s Fool”).

Up in the air is Leading Actor in a Musical.

The two actors battling it out are both playing villains – John Lithgow, the nasty gossip columnist in “Sweet Smell of Success,” and John Cullum, the evil capitalist in “Urinetown.”

I’ll give the edge to Lithgow, simply because he’s the bigger star.

Voters are all over the place on Featured Actress in a Musical.

Harriet Harris, as the comically villainous Mrs. Meers in “Millie,” will probably win, though a lot of voters are enchanted by Laura Benanti’s Cinderella in “Into the Woods.”

One final prediction: For Special Theatrical Event, “Elaine Stritch at Liberty” will receive 731 votes.

Can’t wait for her speech.

* Footnote: For more Tony punditry, tune in to “Theater Talk” tonight on WNET/Channel 13 at 10:30.

I’ll be predicting the Tonys with Patrick Pacheco of Newsday, Jesse McKinley of The New York Times and “Theater Talk” producer Susan Haskins.

The show will air again at midnight.

Our critics vote

Here’s how The Post’s Clive Barnes and Donald Lyons are casting their Tony ballots:

Best Play

Barnes – The Goat Lyons – Fortune’s Fool

Best Musical

Barnes – Sweet Smell of Success Lyons – Urinetown

Best Book of a Musical

Barnes – Mamma Mia! Lyons – Urinetown

Best Original Score

Barnes – Urinetown Lyons – Urinetown

Best Revival Play

Barnes – Private Lives Lyons – Private Lives

Best Revival Musical

Barnes – Oklahoma! Lyons – Oklahoma!

Best Special Event

Barnes – Elaine Stritch Lyons – Elaine Stritch

Best Lead Actor Play

Barnes – Alan Bates Lyons – Alan Bates

Best Lead Actress Play

Barnes – Helen Mirren Lyons – Lindsay Duncan

Best Lead Actor Musical

Barnes – John McMartin Lyons – Patrick Wilson

Best Lead Actress Musical

Barnes – Vanessa Williams Lyons – Louise Pitre

Best Featured Actor Play

Barnes – Sam Robards Lyons – Frank Langella

Best Featured Actress Play

Barnes – Katie Finneran Lyons – Elizabeth Franz

Best Featured Actor Musical

Barnes – Shuler Hensley Lyons – Shuler Hensley

Best Featured Actress Musical

Barnes – Andrea Martin Lyons – Spencer Kayden

Best Scenery

Barnes – Tim Hatley Lyons – Tim Hatley

Best Costumes

Barnes – Jenny Beavan Lyons – Jenny Beavan

Best Lighting

Barnes – Natasha Katz Lyons – David Hersey

Best Direction Play

Barnes – Howard Davies Lyons – Howard Davies

Best Direction Musical

Barnes – Trevor Nunn Lyons – John Rando

Best Choroegraphy

Barnes – Susan Stroman Lyons – Susan Stroman

Best Orchestration

Barnes – Mamma Mia! Lyons – Mamma Mia!