(Paul Kolnik)
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Never mind the straw polls, the crystal balls and the off-the-record chats with voters. If you want to know who’s going to win a Tony, look at seat locations.
Tickets to Sunday night’s telecast at the Beacon Theatre were sent out this week to all the nominees, and it should surprise no one that “The Book of Mormon” has commandeered rows E, F and G, just a quick two-step from the stage.
If you’re with “Sister Act,” you’re going to be in row N (for Nun, I guess). If you’re with “The Scottsboro Boys,” the usher will direct you to the “partial view” seats next to the pillar in row W.
And if you’re backing “Catch Me If You Can,” well, they’ve put out some folding chairs across the street at the Jewish Community Center.
“The Book of Mormon,” Broadway’s biggest musical comedy hit since “The Producers,” will come pretty close to running the table Sunday night.
My hunch is that the show will pick up at least nine Tonys, including Best Musical, Best Book and Best Director (Casey Nicholaw and Trey Parker).
The delightful Nikki M. James, who, as the poor girl in the African village gives the show much of its heart, should win Supporting Actress in a Musical, beating back the usual sure thing in this category, Laura Benanti (“Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown”).
Rory O’Malley, the gay Mormon, will win, too, though he’s neck-and-neck with John Larroquette, who hams it up to a fare-thee-well as J.B. Biggley in “How To Succeed in Business Without Really Trying.”
The only two major awards “Mormon” may not snag are Best Score and Best Actor in a Musical.
There is a lot of support for John Kander and Fred Ebb’s score for “The Scottsboro Boys,” a fine musical that, sadly, only lasted a month on Broadway.
They were writing it when Ebb died in 2004.
“It’s the last Kander and Ebb show,” says a voter. “And the score is a real Broadway score, not a pastiche like ‘Mormon.’ I think people want to acknowledge that.”
The stars of “Mormon” — Josh Gad and Andrew Rannells — are terrific. Both will win Tony Awards someday.
But this year, the winner will be the always popular Norbert Leo Butz, who plays the lonely detective in “Catch Me If You Can.” (A golf cart is at the ready to take him across the street to the Beacon from the JCC.)
On the play front, most voters say “War Horse” will win. And then they add: “But I voted for ‘The Motherf * * ker” With the Hat.”
If there’s going to be an upset Sunday night, this is it.
“Mother,” by Stephen Adly Guirgis, could win because expectations were so low — I know one idiot who predicted it would close soon after it opened — everybody was happily surprised at how funny and moving it turned out to be.
If “War Horse” wins, it will do so not because the play’s great — it’s a simple children’s story — but because the production, with its life-like horse puppets, is so gorgeous, it makes people weep.
It’s also a smash, with weekly grosses of nearly $1 million, which is unheard of for a play without a star.
Says a “War Horse” supporter: “It’s the big hit, and big hits usually win.”
Says a “Mother” supporter: “It’s a real play, as opposed to ‘War Horse,’ which is ‘Lion King Jr.’ ”
Says moi: “War Horse” takes the prize by a length.
As for Revival of a Play, Larry Kramer‘s polemical and prescient “The Normal Heart” came in at the last minute and will trump “The Merchant of Venice.”
I also think Joe Mantello, Ned Weeks in “The Normal Heart,” will beat a field of ferociously talented competitors — Al Pacino (“Merchant”), Brian Bedford (“The Importance of Being Earnest”), Bobby Cannavale (“Mother”) and Mark Rylance (“Jerusalem”).
Mantello hasn’t acted in years, but his chops are as powerful as ever. And as the director of “Wicked,” he has made a lot of Tony voters very, very rich.
Revival of a Musical will go to “Anything Goes.” Its star, Sutton Foster, will win Best Actress in a Musical, and Kathleen Marshall will win for choreography.
Also in the winners’ circle Sunday night: Ellen Barkin (“Normal Heart”), Frances McDormand (“Good People”) and Marianne Elliott and Tom Morris, for the direction of “War Horse.”
A tip to everybody who will not be seated in rows E, F or G Sunday night: Head to the loge.
That, I’m told, is where the open bar will be.
