‘Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone” will almost certainly break box-office records when it opens Friday – and could eventually challenge “Titanic” as the top-grossing film of all time.
That’s what the experts say, and having had an advance look at this much-anticipated, crowd-pleasing blockbuster, I can’t disagree with them. This scrupulously faithful, flawlessly marketed adaptation of J.K. Rowling’s worldwide best seller will be a positive cash machine for Warner Bros.
Martin Grove, a box-office analyst for Hollywood Reporter whose estimates tend to be on the conservative side, is quoting a ballpark figure of “$80 million and quite possibly more” for “Harry’s” first three days.
That would smash the current three-day opening record ($72.1) set by “The Lost World” in 1996, when ticket prices were a bit lower and films didn’t open on quite as many screens.
Warners. is expected to open “Harry Potter” on a record number of screens at nearly 4,000 locations – so that just about everyone who wants to see it next weekend will have the opportunity.
“No kid will want to be the one who didn’t see ‘Harry Potter’ come next Monday morning,” says analyst Gitesh Pandya of boxofficeguru.com. “With Thanksgiving coming on the second weekend, the first 10 days could be an all-time record, too – and Warners probably has a lock on the No. 1 spot until the fourth weekend, when they open ‘Ocean’s Eleven’ with George Clooney.”
Theater owners are giddy with anticipation.
“We’re selling tickets like hotcakes,” said one senior theater-chain executive. “Based on advance interest, many people in exhibition think it will be the biggest thing we’ll see in our lifetimes.”
But Warners will have to sell an awful lot of tickets to pass “Titanic,” which took in $600 million at U.S. theaters back in 1997 and early 1998.
“It’s a real tough benchmark, but if any film can break that mark, this one has a chance,” says Paul Dergarabedian, president of Exhibitor Relations, a box-office tracking service.
“The film absolutely delivers on the promise of the book,” he said. “It taps into all the childhood fantasies of scary monsters, being able to fly and having magical powers.
“I can’t imagine kids won’t be lining up to see the film and wanting to relive that fun over and over.”
The question is whether the film will cross over to their teenage brothers and sisters, whose business pushed “Titanic” into the stratosphere.
“Older teens tend to be less interested in things that involve their younger brothers and sisters, but if ‘Harry Potter’ plays dramatically well to its core audience, other audiences – including young adults – will get curious and start going,” Grove said.
“But they’re going to have to like it a lot for the picture to do $300 million or more.”
Even if “Harry Potter” falls short of “Titanic” numbers, it may be worth more in the long run to Warner Bros. and its corporate parent, Time Warner AOL – which, like other media companies, has been hard hit by the cost of war coverage and a soft advertising market on its print and TV properties.
“Titanic” left no room for a sequel. But if “Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone” is the slam-dunk that everyone agrees it is, it will set up a multibillion-dollar film franchise that could rival that of “Star Wars.”
Production begins next week on the second Potter film, due next fall – and Warners is hoping to make as many as seven films over the next few years.
Talk about Thanksgiving.
