America’s obesity problem is tipping the scales.

A staggering 47% of American adults will be living with obesity by 2035, a new study published in JAMA projects, citing the country’s rapidly rising rates over more than three decades.

But the study’s data ends at 2022 — and thanks to the rise in GLP-1s, a lot has changed in the past three years.

So will these weight-loss drugs change the future of fat in the US? Some experts, including the study’s authors, are not so sure.

In 2022 alone, more than 107 million American adults (42% of the population) were living with obesity — an increase of roughly 72 million people (19% of the population) since 1990.

Following that trend, researchers at University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation expect the numbers to grow over the next decade: By 2035, they say that number will swell to 126 million adults, straining an already overburdened health care system. One of the lead authors calls it a “major public health threat.”

Notably, though, the researchers stopped their analysis just before US obesity rates began to show early signs of slipping.

According to Gallup survey data released in October, adult obesity rates fell to 37% in 2025 — a drop many experts link to the explosive rise of GLP-1 drugs, including Ozempic, Wegovy and Mounjaro.

A November report from KFF found that 1 in 8 adults is taking a GLP-1 to lose weight or manage a chronic condition. Nearly 1 in 5 Americans say they’ve tried one at some point.

With the GLP-1 boom showing no signs of slowing, and new drugs already on the horizon, it’s unclear how much the trend will reshape America’s obesity trajectory.

But Catherine Johnson, a lead research scientist at IHME and lead author of the study, insists that what we’re seeing across the country isn’t the same as what’s happening more locally.

“Our findings at the state level show large amounts of variation by location, with obesity rates in some states continuing to increase, while rates in other states show a similar leveling off to what is observed nationally,” she told The Post.

“Yes, weight-loss medications have the potential to reduce obesity rates,” she went on. But GLP-1 drug use “has been limited by cost and other barriers to care — only about 1 in 5 people with a history of overweight or obesity reported ever taking one of them in 2024, in one study.”

Though they’ve made an impact for individuals, she continued, “our findings indicate that obesity at the population level remains a significant public health risk and that this is likely to continue into the future.”

And certainly, not every expert is convinced the drugs will “solve” the obesity epidemic.

“The apparent easy fixes aren’t really changing behaviors,” said Dr. Armando Castro-Tie, chair of surgery at South Shore University Hospital and senior vice president physician executive for the eastern market of Northwell Health, who was not involved in the study. 

“The thing with GLP-1s that I think is disturbing to many of us that work with obesity is that it’s sort of deemed to have been the magic pill. It’s not really addressing the core issues at hand of what really drives obesity in a person.

“And it’s different for everybody. But until behaviors change, all we’re doing is putting a bandage on something and not really addressing the core problem.”

Castro-Tie noted that obesity is just the tip of the iceberg, with a host of serious health problems lurking beneath the surface.

“Look at the rates of heart disease, diabetes, pulmonary disease and certain types of cancers. All of those are correlated with higher BMI,” he said.

“If we don’t curb it, especially in the childhood and adolescent age groups, then we’re just going to be dealing with an overall more morbid population,” he continued. “Are our health care system and infrastructure equipped to handle that? Arguably, probably not.”

One thing is certain: Obesity isn’t spread evenly across the country.

Over the 30-year study, researchers found major gaps by race, ethnicity and age — and those gaps are only expected to widen.

Young women experienced some of the sharpest increases overall. Among Hispanic and non-Hispanic white women, obesity rates climbed fastest in those aged 30 to 34.

For non-Hispanic black women, the steepest rise came even earlier — ages 25 to 29 — with obesity rates jumping from 26.1% to 52.9%.

Among men, the gains were more spread out, with the biggest increases occurring between the mid-40s and early 70s, depending on the group.

State by state, the differences were also stark.

In 2022, women had the highest obesity rates in Oklahoma, where a staggering 54% were obese. For men, Indiana topped the list at 47.2%.

Looking ahead to 2035, the numbers get even heavier.

Obesity among women is projected to peak in South Dakota, reaching 59.5%, while Indiana is expected to hold on to its unwanted title for men, climbing to 53.6%.

Across the board, non-Hispanic black women had the highest obesity rates in every state — in both 2022 and the projections for 2035.

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